The Obama administration dropped its projected Obamacare enrollment total for 2015 by millions on Monday.
The Congressional Budget Office had projected that paying Obamacare customers would number 13 million in 2015, but Health and Human Services has backed off that estimate, now expecting between nine million and 10 million paying customers next year, according to an analysis published Monday.
HHS is cutting its estimates of the number of previously insured customers shifting into Obamacare exchanges from employer coverage or private individual health plans. It’s expecting the shift to take longer to “ramp up,” moving back its estimate that exchange enrollment will reach 25 million within three years to four or five years. The administration’s policy that allows states to continue plans that aren’t compliant with Obamacare is likely a factor.
The question of whether Obamacare enrollment would meet the CBO projection dominated the first enrollment period and it’s possible the administration wants to keep expectations low ahead of the next open enrollment period.
HHS also revealed that the 2014 enrollment has fallen again to 7.1 million as of October, still above the CBO’s initial enrollment projection for 2014.
That means since May, almost one million customers either failed to pay premiums, canceled their coverage or were dropped by the administration after failing to verify their information. The 2014 total may drop slightly more before the end of the year as some states belatedly verify customer information. (RELATED: Connecticut May Cut Coverage For 30,000 Obamacare Customers)
The administration is expecting just 5.9 million of those customers to buy their insurance plans against next year — a retention rate of 83 percent.
The next open enrollment period begins Saturday and HealthCare.gov launched window shopping, complete with premium costs, late Sunday evening. (RELATED: Post-Election, HealthCare.gov Will Finally Let You Check Prices)