Politics is a microcosm of life. We pretend we can control events, but events so often shape us.
Smart politicians try to exert control over their futures by worrying about things like building a campaign war chest (material considerations) and managing their public image (popularity). This is what all smart, responsible people must do. But at the end, we control nothing. (This is one of those wisdom keys we’re doomed to constantly learn and relearn: “Which of you by taking thought can add one cubit unto his stature?”)
Something small, but interesting, just reminded me of this. As you probably know, the U.S. senate staggers elections, meaning that a third of the seats are on the ballot every two years. This, it turns out, could be a big deal for some aspiring Republicans. As Alexis Levinson points out at RollCall, it could incredibly important for some potential GOP veep picks:
“GOP operatives have often mentioned Sens. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire; Rob Portman of Ohio; and Marco Rubio of Florida, as potential running mates for the eventual GOP nominee in 2016. Here’s the problem: The trio is up for re-election in competitive states in 2016. If one of them is selected for the No. 2 spot, Republicans would risk losing the Senate seat — and possibly, control of that chamber.”
As Levinson notes, it’s not merely that they are on the ballot this year, but also that these are important states, and that the GOP’s hold over the senate is so tenuous.
This, you might say, is no way to run a railroad. Theoretically, a nominee would select a running mate based on leadership skills or experience. A more realistic analysis factors political considerations into the equation. But this is usually based on things like demography or geography, not an accident of time (not to be confused with “tenure,” which would denote experience).
Not to make too much out of this, but the fact that the senate re-election calendar could easily factor into such an important decision underscores how seemingly arbitrary matters (like the year someone was first elected) can make or break a career, not to mention (potentially) the course of history.