You’ve heard the quadrennial cliché: “This is the most important election in history!” Whether or not that’s true, the 2016 contest is poised to be one of the most interesting. So I thought it might be helpful to conduct an interview with someone who could shed some light on what to expect. And — in the spirit of Ross Douthat — I figured: Who better to interview than yours truly? Yes, I’m interviewing myself.
Here goes:
What are the odds a Republican could actually win in 2016?
Probably better than you think. It’s rare for any political party to win three consecutive presidential contests. Republicans have a deep bench of talented candidates, and it’s starting to look like Hillary Clinton might not be such a terrific candidate. And lastly, it’s unclear what the electorate will look like without Barack Obama on the ballot in 2016. Do as many African-Americans and Hispanics turn out to vote? Will the pool of voters look more like 2012 (when Obama was re-elected) or 2014 (when Republicans took the U.S. Senate)?
What else should we look for?
There’s a good chance history will be made. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio could become the first Hispanic president — or Hillary could become the first female POTUS. And that’s just a taste of the possible ethnic and gender diversity this campaign could offer. Former business executive Carly Fiorina, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (who is Indian-American), and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (who is an African-American) are also likely candidates who would undermine the notion that the Republican Party is the exclusive property of old, white men.
What weird nuances should we keep in mind the next few months?
Probably the most important thing to keep in mind is that there is no national primary day, which means you shouldn’t pay too much attention to national polls. Instead, we have a series of state contests. And some states have disproportionate power. For example, Iowa and New Hampshire — relatively small states — always go first. And South Carolina isn’t far behind. History has shown that a candidate basically has to win one of these early states in order to have a shot at the nomination. But if a candidate can win one of these states — he can then potentially parlay that into more money and future victories. As they say, nothing succeeds like success.
Because of Iowa’s demographics — and caucus format — candidates who stress their Christian conservative values tend to perform better at turning out the most passionate supporters. And because Iowa is the first contest in the nation, there is a tremendous incentive for every candidate to do this. I’m not suggesting candidates who talk about their faith aren’t being sincere, but when you see someone like Ted Cruz announce his candidacy at a Christian college like Liberty University, you can bet that this is at least part of the calculus.
Fair enough. Now, I’m going to mention a candidate’s name, and I want you to give me your honest appraisal of —
This sounds like a bad idea.
Duly noted. Okay, here goes, in no particular order, some of the most prominent and likely candidates.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush …
He will have plenty of money and name recognition. But Bush is also haunted by the dynasty problem (how many Bushes can be president?!?) and by the fact that he supports controversial policy positions on education and immigration reform that are anathema to the conservative base. This is to say he’s not a shoo-in.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker …
He took on the unions in his home state, and won. That was impressive. He’s considered a front runner, but I’m not convinced he’s ready for prime time. Let’s see how he does in the debates when it comes to talking about issues like foreign policy.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz …
Don’t underestimate him. He is incredibly smart and reflects the conservative base’s Id better than any other candidate. (Note: My wife formerly consulted for Cruz’s senate campaign.)
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul …
Paul’s anti-interventionist foreign policy hasn’t aged well since Russia invaded Crimea and ISIS started decapitating people. He’s also harmed by the fact that Ted Cruz is probably a better, more mainstream, version of Rand Paul.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio …
The son of a bartender who emigrated from Cuba, Rubio’s “American Dream” story is nothing short of inspiring. If the goal is to elect a Republican who can eloquently articulate to non-conservatives why conservatism is the best philosophy, he’s the man. But Rubio is still haunted by his support of immigration reform (which many in the conservative base vehemently oppose).
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie …
Christie is a charismatic and dogged politician who managed to get elected in a very liberal state…twice. On the other hand, he can come across as a bully, and his popularity has taken a plunge due to a high-profile scandal. I’m not convinced he will even run, but if he manages to get into the debates, anything can happen.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee …
Huckabee bounded onto the national stage in 2008, where a series of terrific debate performances helped propel the pastor and politician to an Iowa victory. Until recently, he had his own Fox News show, which gave him terrific exposure to likely Republican voters. In terms of pure charisma, Huckabee is arguably in the same league as Ronald Reagan and his fellow Arkansas governor Bill Clinton. But his penchant for hyperbole and for hawking dubious products has led to a reputation where Huckabee is often thought of as a huckster. There’s no telling how far he might have gone had he focused solely on winning the presidency. Talk about squandered talent.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum …
It’s amazing to think the guy who won the Iowa caucuses the last time around is an afterthought this time around, but Santorum essentially is. Like Huckabee, he can preach populism and inspire Christian conservatives, but Santorum can never quite put it all together.
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry …
First, let me disclose that my wife works for RickPAC, the leadership political action committee affiliated with Perry. Having said that, if he was overrated last time; this time around, I think it’s the exact opposite. This is a guy who was the longest serving governor of Texas. What is more, I think he learned some lessons from his failed 2012 bid. Perry needs to have a big moment to overcome doubts that were raised four years ago. If that moment comes, watch out.
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal …
On paper, Bobby Jindal is the best candidate in the field. He’s the son of immigrants from India. He was a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford, who basically ran Louisiana’s department of health and hospitals. He was a Congressman and is now a two-term governor. If resumes ran for office, he would easily win. Unfortunately, Jindal lacks that certain something we’ve come to demand in our modern presidents.
Former Business Executive Carly Fiorina …
A former Hewlett-Packard CEO and California senate candidate, it would be easy to dismiss Fiorina as someone who has never been elected to anything who wants attention. But she has, thus far, impressed. As the only likely female in the GOP field, she has the potential to attack Hillary Clinton in ways that might backfire coming from a male candidate. Though I suspect she won’t land a veep slot, don’t be surprised to see Fiorina land a cabinet post, should a Republican win the nomination.
Retired Neurosurgeon Ben Carson …
Dr. Ben Carson is a brilliant surgeon, but one gets the sense that he’s not ready for political prime time. While Carly Fiorina seems poised to profit from her candidacy, Carson seems more likely to besmirch his legacy. Then again, sometimes people fail forward in politics… Who knows, maybe he will land a cable news show?
Do you have anything else to say?
I’ve said too much, already. But thanks for talking with me. You’re a terrific interviewer.
You’re an amazing guest.