Politics

Amid Confederate Flag Flap, Jeb Bush Emerges Stronger

Matt K. Lewis Senior Contributor
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In the wake of the horrific church shooting in Charleston, S.C., the two dynastic establishment candidates seem to have benefited most from the new political environment.

Former Sen. Hillary Clinton benefits for obvious reasons: She was quick to pounce after the horrific church shooting, aggressively bringing up issues like gun control and the Confederate flag. But this was hardly a profile in courage; because Clinton does not need the support of gun owners or the South, this costs her nothing.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush also benefits — and for much more substantive and courageous reasons. On this issue, Bush not only holds his own against Clinton — he actually wins it. As governor, Bush had the flag permanently removed from the Florida state capitol. That took real political courage. And today, it sets him apart from the other GOP candidates, who hesitated to take a strong stance on the issue.

You can be a great candidate who runs a great campaign, but electoral success is often tied to the political environment — things that you cannot change by raising more money or knocking on more doors. Context changes everything, thus Jeb Bush looked like a great conservative in the 1990s, and today … not so much. But the good news for Jeb is that the context seems to have just changed again.

Just as the visual image of a smokestack once symbolized prosperity (but now symbolizes pollution), political candidates look better or worse depending on the prism through which they are viewed. And in today’s context — where Republicans might be looking for someone who can run as a mainstream conservative without being easily demonized — Bush looks pretty good.

What is more, benefits by the fact that he unilaterally took the flag down. And I’m not just saying that because it shows he was sincerely opposed to the flag’s presence — though that is certainly true. Instead, what I am saying is that he was operating from a position of strength, not weakness, and that this is a big deal to Republican primary voters.

It’s one thing to be forced to do something — to succumb to pressure. It’s another thing to proactively decide as governor of a state to take a bold stand. Republicans who take moderate positions tend to look like wimps precisely because they take those moderate positions in order to appease others. That’s not what happened here. In this regard, Bush gets credit for courageously having done the right thing.

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Political environments change, of course. A few short months ago, the big debate was over religious freedom, and after a rather weak press conference delivered by Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, I argued that what was needed was a wartime consigliere. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, I thought, would have done a better job in that milieu — because what was needed was a fighter.

The candidates running for the Republican nomination will campaign hard, but ultimately, it will probably come down to what kind of Republican voters want. And the answer to that question might have a lot to do with what scandal or hot-button issue is on their minds at the moment.

If Republican voters conclude that the most important thing they need from a nominee is someone who can sell conservative ideas to a more cosmopolitan 21st century America, they will probably lean toward someone like Bush or Rubio. But if they conclude that an irenic temperament is a minus, and that a penchant for persuasion is a fool’s errand — and the way to win is to hunker down and fight like hell, conceding zero ground — Jeb probably won’t win.

Regardless, I think it’s safe to say this is the first week in a long time where I felt like Jeb Bush was gaining momentum in the Republican primary.