Opinion

A Clash With Russia In Syria?

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While the bulk of the U.S. media obsess over the punch-and-counterpunch analysis of the latest Republican debate, a much more serious situation is unfolding in the Middle East.

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, a bad guy the U.S. has determined must go and yet has done precious little about, has been receiving a considerable boost from his long term ally and friend Vladimir Putin. This aid, in terms of a dramatic military buildup, is not at all an altruistic move on the Kremlin’s part, but one that serves a multitude of military and political objectives.

Alarmed several months ago that Syrian government forces were retreating on multiple fronts at a rate that threatened Assad, its closest Middle East ally, the Kremlin quietly decided to dispatch more men, weaponry and armor to the region. Russia sees Assad, someone Putin has staunchly supported as a long-standing Kremlin ally, and a bulwark against radical Islam. The Kremlin calculus is both self-serving and regionally tactical: they have determined that if Assad falls, many of the ISIS and other radical Jihadists, thousands of which come from Russia and the former Soviet Union, would return home and stoke the flames of religious conflict in the predominantly Muslim Caucasus.

Tactically, Syria is vitally important to Moscow, with the naval base at Tartous being its only deep water Mediterranean port. In order to support and bolster Assad and dig in deeper, Washington is reporting that the airport at Latakia has undergone a major military upgrade — including a sophisticated air defense system. With the introduction of MIG fighters and helicopter gunships, Putin is sending a strong signal to the US, who just this week had military talks with the Kremlin regarding their concerns over the buildup.

The trouble for the U.S., and Israel, is that Putin has no indication the U.S. will do anything to stop him propping up the Assad regime. We did nothing when he annexed the Crimea. And the same again when he rolled into Ukraine.

Our failure to stop ISIS by any meaningful military action and conveniently ignoring the red line set by Obama, plus our growing weakness on the foreign stage has only served to embolden the Russian leader. His forces will attack ISIS and other anti-Assad elements and make him a regional hero in the eyes of the Shia Muslims. He is gambling that the U.S. military will not step in to stop his forces supporting Assad and he is probably right.

For Putin to prop up the Shia regime of Assad — and the bulk of Syria’s population is Sunni Muslim — and strike against ISIS, who have vowed to kill all Shia as apostates, is a clear signal to Iran, another Shia Muslim country, where his allegiances are being placed. The most worrying thing here is that the Obama administration, so woefully inadequate when it comes to foreign policy, is actually expecting Assad to step down of his own accord. Just this week, in the face of the undeniable Russian military buildup, Secretary of State Kerry stated that President Bashar al-Assad must step down, but the timing of his departure has to be decided through negotiation.

Putin cannot allow Assad to fail, so Kerry’s wishy-washy ultimatum is just a waste of breath and window dressing on the international stage.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will fly to Moscow this coming week for direct talks with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin about the buildup of Russian forces in Syria. Mr. Netanyahu is obviously worried that new troops and material in the region could hamper Israel’s efforts fending off its regional enemy Hezbollah. He is also rightly concerned that new air defense systems at Latakia would not be intended for non-existent ISIS air support: they can only be intended for Israel and U.S. forces.

While we stay inwardly focused on Trump versus Fiorina, poll numbers and lackluster debate performances, forces are inexorably building to a crisis point in the Middle East. Putin will not allow Assad to either fail or step down and he will attack ISIS. Netanyahu is running out of time for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and has to deal with the Russian build up. The Syrian conflict is driving an unprecedented migration of Muslims into Europe and the U.S.

We need to pay attention to these rapidly deteriorating situations. Their ramifications go way beyond the 2016 election and may destabilize the entire world if we don’t act, and act now.