BOULDER, Colo. — Get ready, America: The third GOP presidential debate is Wednesday night.
In a city best known for liberal college students and pot smoking, the GOP presidential contenders will face off in a fight for at least a temporary bounce in the polls. So the stakes are at least temporarily high.
The undercard debate, featuring Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and Rick Santorum, will take place at 6 p.m. on CNBC. The adult debate, featuring everyone else in the race other than Jim Gilmore, who will again be watching both debates in boxer shorts from his home, will begin just after 8 p.m. on CNBC.
Here are five things to watch for:
1.) The Trump vs. Carson Showdown
Donald Trump likes to portray himself as a “counterpuncher,” only attacking his fellow Republican contenders after they attack him first, but his recent broadsides against Ben Carson came after no provocation. Well, at least the attacks came after no ill words from Carson. The provocation was several polls showing Trump losing to Carson in Iowa — and now there is at least one national poll showing Carson topping Trump.
Standing side-by-side at Wednesday’s debate, we will see if the bombastic billionaire and the soft-spoken surgeon will engage in verbal fisticuffs. In September’s second GOP debate, Carson eschewed the opportunity to use his esteemed medical credentials take Trump to task for his views on vaccinations. Will he be more willing to throw down this time?
Maybe. Trump has subtly raised the issue of Carson’s religion, suggesting that perhaps Seventh Day Adventism is not as mainstream a Christian sect as his Presbyterian faith. But Carson may have a hard time crying foul since just last month he suggested a candidate’s religious belief system could be relevant in relation to voting for a Muslim presidential candidate.
How this duel plays out could potentially affect the state of the race. One outsider candidate could top the other. Or, both could wound each other, allowing another candidate on stage a chance to capitalize.
One thing is worth pointing out: Trump’s supporters seem far more sold on their guy than Carson’s supporters. So the stakes may be higher for Carson to come out as the winner of any showdown in weed-town.
2.) Can Bush Stop The Bleeding?
If Jeb Bush doesn’t show some signs of life soon, he may be doing all the “really cool things” he says he could be doing instead of running for president in the near future. Will he show a pulse Wednesday night?
Most political experts don’t think Bush is on the verge of dropping out. But how many people predicted Scott Walker would drop out after the last presidential debate? I think it’s the same number of people who predicted Ben Carson and Donald Trump would be leading at this point in the GOP primary.
Bush is burdened with greater expectations than anyone else in the field because of his last name and because some of his aides promised a “shock and awe” strategy when he entered the race. There hasn’t been much shock or awe. Bush’s super PAC did raise a whole lot of money, but that hasn’t helped his standing in the polls.
Though better than much of the field, Bush’s third quarter fundraising numbers didn’t quite meet expectations. And now he is pouting in public about how nasty the campaign has become and how he has other things he could be doing instead of running for president. This is not the rhetoric of a guy who is on the verge of winning the Republican presidential nomination.
So Wednesday night, Bush will have another opportunity to impress on a national stage. If he performs as poorly as he has in the last two debates, raising money could become even harder. So it’s worth watching to see if we will see a president-in-waiting — or a guy who will soon have lots of time to spend in Miami playing golf and cursing the fact that it was his brother who won a gubernatorial race in 1994 and not him.
3.) Will Rubio, Cruz And Fiorina Finally Break Out?
After the last GOP debate, Carly Fiorina was supposed to skyrocket to the top of the polls after her outstanding performance. And she did shoot up — for a brief period. But then, she shot back down to the middle of the pack. Will she be able to get her momentum back Wednesday night?
For that matter, will Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio be able to cement themselves in the top tier through outstanding debate performances? Both are capable orators and their campaigns have been praised by the media. A great deal of the Beltway punditocracy believes when the dust settles, Rubio will be the Republican nominee.
But so far, Rubio and Cruz remain far behind Trump and Carson. Perhaps Wednesday night they can begin to make their case for front-runner status — or, alternatively, they will perform well but continue to coast, waiting for Carson and Trump implode.
4.) Game Over Or Game On For Christie, Paul And Kasich?
At some point the criteria to make the main debate stage has to tighten. Will Chris Christie, Rand Paul and John Kasich show enough life Wednesday to increase their abysmal poll numbers so that they can make it into the next debate?
For most of the month of October, Paul has been on death watch. His third quarter fundraising was abysmal and there was a question of whether his poll numbers would be good enough to make it into Wednesday night’s debate. Some Republican insiders were suggesting he drop out of the race in order to focus on his Senate re-election campaign.
Paul made the main stage debate, perhaps saving his candidacy. At least for now. Making the debate may just be a temporary lifeline. The next debate, sponsored by Fox Business Network and The Wall Street Journal, is in just under two weeks. Can Paul perform well enough to make the main debate stage?
For that matter, can Christie and Kasich, who also just squeaked in to this debate?
For the next debate, candidates will have to have an average of 2.5 percent over the four most recent national polls to make the main debate stage. At this point, Christie wouldn’t make it, and Paul and Kasich would barely make it. So the stakes are high for seeing an improvement in the polls for these presidential wannabes.
Maybe being cut from the main debate stage won’t end any of these candidates’ campaigns. But it will make life much more difficult for them. After all, when you are appearing on the same stage as George Pataki, few will be able to easily imagine the presidency is in your future. At least not the presidency of the United States. Maybe the presidency of the United Way.
So the pressure is on for these candidates to perform and convince Republicans nationwide they deserve to continue to be included in the adult debates.
5.) Will Anyone Show Up To The Debate High?
The debate is in Colorado, where recreational marijuana is legal, so will anyone show up to the debate high?
Probably not. But if I had to guess one candidate who is the most likely to consider it, it would be Rand Paul in a bold move to win the youth vote. Paul needs college students to support him in droves in Iowa, so with his campaign not exactly killing it, why not adopt an unconventional strategy to win over the the young and perpetually high demographic?
After Paul, maybe one of the candidates in the happy hour debate might decide to show up high to ease the pain of being a sitting governor or senator and being treated as a marginal figure.
Again, I don’t necessarily see anyone showing up high. But for the sake of journalism and pure entertainment, I highly encourage it.