Ben Carson’s recent surge in Iowa — and Donald Trump’s attack on Carson’s faith and politics — has some pundits speculating that the GOP race is being completely upended. That reaction seems to typify the way the media so often covers presidential campaigns these days: reading far too much into every little twist and turn in the polling and ignoring the broader patterns and long-term fundamentals.
Carson’s Iowa surge is noteworthy — but hardly surprising. He was always the candidates best positioned to win in Iowa and now, with an expanded campaign chest, he is starting to make the most of it.
Many pundits seem to forget how rare it is for a successful GOP candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Moreover, few seem to have noticed that as Carson has overtaken Trump and the rest of the field in Iowa, Trump has vastly expanded his own lead in New Hampshire. Add to that Trump’s widening margin in many other states, from Florida to South Carolina to Massachusetts, and Carson’s surge in Iowa seems more of an anomaly than a trend. In fact, the biggest story of late isn’t really Carson’s surge in Iowa as much Trump’s rising favorability ratings among Republicans. Only a short time ago, GOP voters, even those that liked Trump, said they expected him to fade and Jeb Bush would win the nomination. Not anymore. The latest polls show that an overwhelming number of Republicans now believe that Trump is the most likely to win. Carson and the rest of the field, including one-time favorite Jeb Bush, all trail far behind.
The fact is, an Iowa victory has never really been a game changer for a presidential candidate in either party. It’s a caucus contest, not a primary battle, which means it favors candidates that tend to get set up early — and almost live in the state in the year or more leading up to the actual contest. That was certainly the case with Rick Santorum in 2012, whom many never really considered a serious candidate until he squeaked out an Iowa victory and then went on a torrid run, capturing ten states, before ceding the nomination to Romney. But like Mike Huckabee four years earlier, Santorum never really shook the label of being a “narrow” social conservative candidate with limited appeal to voters.
Carson, like Santorum, got an early start in Iowa, much earlier than many people realize. Moreover, he has built his base not only among social conservatives generally — who dominate the Hawkeye State electorate like nowhere else — but among homeschoolers, specifically, the kind of people who turn out on caucus night. Look back at the Iowa polling a year ago, long before Trump or even Scott Walker entered the race, and Carson, who had yet to officially announce, was already leading or just off the lead. And despite the Walker surge, and then the summer of Trump, Carson has remained steadfastly in the hunt ever since.
Carson’s appeal in Iowa should be obvious. His staunch opposition to abortion is well-known. He has a solid marriage and devoted wife. He quotes scripture and exudes an abiding, soft-spoken, faith. However much Trump might try to stir up controversy over Carson’s denominational affiliation, being a Seventh Day Adventist is not going to rile evangelicals the way Romney’s Mormonism once did. And Trump, of course, with his three marriages, and past support for abortion, is hardly one to question another man’s Christian devotion.
Still Carson has yet to demonstrate an ability to best Trump overall. A CBS/IBD poll had Carson ahead by seven points nationally a month ago – but the poll turned out to be an outlier. Earlier polls had Trump and Carson running neck and neck — and there was a nary a peep from the commentariat. Given the margin of error in these polls – including the most recent CBS/New York Times poll showing Carson with a narrow lead — fluctuations of 5-6 points one way or the other may not mean that much – unless a more consistent trend over a series of polls is found. Anything else turns out to be wishful thinking.
Trump, despite persistent predictions, has not collapsed and shows no signs of collapsing anywhere. He and Carson have been dominating the field overall and are continuing to do so, while jockeying for position. Time will tell whether Carson is in a position to do more than raise his visibility slightly while consolidating his hold on Iowa. For now, make no mistake: the GOP race is still The Donald’s to lose.