Opinion

Russia’s Attacks On NATO: U.S. Needs To Show Some Leadership

Jason Katz Founder, Tool Shed Group
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Amidst the ever unfolding conflagration that is the Middle East, compounded with an absence of American leadership and a power vacuum the U.S. irresponsibly left, an attack on NATO is afoot, but the United States seems to be missing it.

Beginning in October 2015, and with little reaction from the U.S., Russia “volunteered” to send military forces to the Middle East to “join” the fight against ISIS. After a 40 year Russian absence from the region (the U.S. maneuvered their retreat long ago in the interests of national and international security), there is now a Russian presence likely to extend for decades.

This was Russia’s latest geopolitical move following the 2009 invasion of Georgia, the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, the subsequent invasion of Eastern Ukraine, and the ongoing threats to Moldova, Lithuania, Poland and others. A definite pattern has emerged that shows the Russians aggressively seeking to regain territory lost with the fall of the Soviet Union and to reclaim the past “grandeur” of Tsarist Russia. It is, simply put, Russian neo-Imperialist expansion.

Since their deployment, Russian troops have done little or nothing to fight ISIS. Rather, they have utilized their air and ground assets against anti-Assad forces in an attempt to prop up and save the beleaguered Syrian Baath Party led by Bashar al Assad, a butcher and the man who used chemical weapons and barrel bombs against his own population — all despite the U.S. administration’s repeated red lines.

The latest chapter in this Russian-led geopolitical chess game, and in keeping with Russian military and political elite’s penchant for testing other nation’s resolve and instilling fear into those nations lacking a strong military, two Russian SU-24 bombers invaded Turkish airspace. They would not heed Turkish warnings to disengage, so, in response to the incursion, two Turkish F16 fighters were scrambled and ultimately shot down one Russian bomber.

Of particular interest to Moscow and Russian military action are the anti-Assad Turkmen who live and fight just across the border from Turkey. A moderate Turkic people, Ankara feels an understandable affinity and sense of responsibility for them. The exchange transpired over this territory. Perhaps Moscow forgot that Turkey is no small nation and it not easily rattled, possibly owing to its significant military might. Turkey, a key NATO member, possesses the second largest military in NATO and maintains a well-equipped and well-trained fighting force on land, sea and air.

In response, Moscow and President Vladimir Putin, in particular, began a blustery campaign against Turkey. Sanctions against Turkey were announced. Russia threatened to cut off gas supplies to Turkey and to Turkish pipelines connecting to Europe. In essence, it is the same vitriolic rhetoric and punitive measures Moscow always uses when feeling an affront or not getting its way.

In an even more dramatic move, one that tipped Moscow’s hand and revealed its real forward progress in taking back territory once of the Soviet Union, Moscow began a military buildup along the border between Armenia and Turkey. Moscow reported that armor and infantry regiments and brigades and units specializing in electronic warfare, anti-aircraft, multiple rocket launcher, anti-tank, motorized rifle, and artillery forces are in the midst of being deployed to the Turkish-Armenia border. This comprises a total of roughly 7,000 Russian troops now being put into full combat status.   

For years, debate has raged over whether Armenia is a sovereign nation or simply as vassal state of the Russian Federation. There seems to be no question now that Armenia long ago cheaply sold its sovereignty to Moscow. Long has it been known and not a subject of debate that Armenia is the last of the former Soviet Republics to have Russian troops in its territory. In fact, because Armenia is terrified of an ever-increasingly strong economically and militarily Azerbaijan, the Russian air force patrols Armenia’s airspace and Russian troops patrol and defend Armenia’s borders.

Armenia is locked in a frozen conflict with Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno Karabakh that it has occupied since the fall of the Soviet Union. During the shooting portion of the war, Armenian and Russian troops, with the help of the Mullahs in Iran, ethnically cleansed and occupied this region amounting to more than 20 percent of Azerbaijan. This occupation led to a refugee crisis with a million people still living as Internally Displaced People in Azerbaijan. It seems that the U.S Congress and the Obama administration may want to re-evaluate the significant foreign aid and support the American taxpayers afford Armenia, particularly now that Armenia has been outed and proven to be an enemy of NATO and thus the U.S.

It bears noting that Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s first trip following the incident with Russia was to Baku, Azerbaijan’s capitol. Azerbaijan is a close ally of Turkey and of NATO. Turkey and Azerbaijan often refer to one another as “one nation-two flags.” Interestingly, Turkey is predominantly Sunni and Azerbaijan is predominantly Shi’a … so much for conventional wisdom that these two major sects of Islam can’t and won’t get along. It would seem that the key is secularism and separation of religion and state. There and following intensive meetings between Davutoglu and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, Aliyev publicly and definitively announced his (and his nation’s) support for Turkey and for NATO. 

But why invade Turkish airspace and invite the shoot down of one of your own bombers? Why invade Ukraine? What is this constant sabre rattling and armed conflict? Could it be that NATO has encroached too far into what Russia perceives as its territory, the sovereign nations currently occupying that space notwithstanding? The answer is that NATO is the only force standing in the way of Russian neo-Imperialist expansionism and Russia is trying everything in its tool kit to fracture and ultimately put an end to NATO. The current U.S. administration seems to simply not get it.

It is time for NATO allies, like Turkey, that are not fearful to counter the expansionist Russians and their vassals like Armenia. They must pressure the U.S. to wake up to these geopolitical realities.

In the waning days of the Obama administration, it must come to understand geopolitics in general and Russia and the various powers with competing interests in the Middle East specifically. Should the administration be unable or unwilling to finally make the transition from civic intergroup relations to an outlook much more conducive to understanding and dealing effectively with international affairs and the world stage, Congress must take up the leadership mantle and do all it can within the confines of the law to meet Russia’s aggression and to support those willing to stand up with them like Turkey and Azerbaijan, lest we may face the emasculation of NATO.

Jason Katz is the principal of TSG, LLC, a consultancy that advises foreign governments (including the government of Azerbaijan), NGOs and corporations in the realms of strategic communications, politics and policy. He is also the former head of Public Affairs and Public Relations for the American Jewish Committee, based in Los Angeles. The writer writes this in his personal capacity.