Opinion

Jeb Bush Can’t Face The Music Because He Still Doesn’t Hear It

Stewart Lawrence Stewart J. Lawrence is a Washington, D.C.-based public policy analyst who writes frequently on immigration and Latino affairs. He is also founder and managing director of Puentes & Associates, Inc., a bilingual survey research and communications firm.
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Is Jeb Bush’s long-suffering bid for the White House finally imploding? A bevy of national polls suggest that Bush is out of the running and should probably quit. But rather than concede, the former two-term governor is digging in his heels. Last week, Bush’s Super PAC, Right to Rise, launched a vitriolic over-the-top ad campaign against his one-time protégé Marco Rubio. The ads found fault with Rubio’s work ethic, his flip-flopping, his financial woes, and even his new black boots. GOP elders, who are hoping that Rubio can stop Trump, weren’t amused, and rebuked Bush publicly. But the next day, Bush was at it again, suggesting that Rubio, who stands 5’10”, had bought the black boots just to look taller. “I don’t have a “height issue.” the 6’3” Bush declared.

That’s not what the polls say. In recent weeks, Rubio has surged into mid double-digits nationally giving him sole possession of third place, while in New Hampshire Rubio has climbed to second place, and in Iowa, third place. How has Bush done by comparison? He’s still in low single-digits virtually everywhere. Not even the withdrawal of Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal or Lindsay Graham – to say nothing of a half dozen, often listless debate performances by the candidate himself — has allowed Bush to raise his standing with voters.

Analysts have various theories as to why Bush has nosedived. There’s the Bush name, of course, and the albatross of the Iraq War, massive government deficits, and the financial collapse under his brother George W. But that hardly explains why Jeb emerged as the presumptive GOP front-runner to begin with. In fact, opinion polls show that the public’s view of Dubya has grown increasingly favorable over the years, and of course, many still remember Jeb’s father, who surged to a 90 percent approval rating after Desert Storm, rather fondly.

Some say Bush is too identified with the “establishment,” but Jeb isn’t really a part of the “establishment” that voters say annoys them the most — the “Washington establishment.” Several other candidates, including Rubio, are. Bush has been out of office – and active politics — for nearly a decade. He’s certainly far less implicated in today’s hyper-partisan, legislative gridlock than Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who proudly touts his twenty years in Congress and is even more moderate on the issues. Yet Bush still trails Kasich badly in NH, and has only a marginal advantage nationally.   

There’s a much simpler explanation: Jeb, for all the hype, is a terrible candidate. Trump’s depiction of Bush as “low-energy,” though nasty, did seem to resonate. Kasich is more moderate that Bush but is also angrier and more irascible, however annoyingly so. He doesn’t lack for passion. Bush does. When he tries to take on Trump, he comes off like a scold. Some of his attacks on Trump have hit home, but he hardly sounds like a statesman. There just isn’t a lot of there there.

Ironically, Bush does have a pretty stellar record in Florida — but that’s also part of his problem.  Every time he extols “what we got done in Tallahassee,” you’re reminded of a small-town office-holder, a mayor perhaps – not a steely Commander-in-Chief who would stare down Russia’s Putin or Syria’s Assad.  Many GOP voters probably don’t even know where Tallahassee is, unless Bush, citing Florida and its importance to the GOP as the pre-eminent battleground state makes a case that he can win there – and in Ohio, too. This was the Bush son that was supposedly “destined” for the presidency. In fact, the man has a tin ear for national campaign politics.

Many GOP voters have already made up their mind about Jeb – his net favorability ratings are among the lowest in the field. And yet given the complicated end-game  of the GOP race – and the enormous amount of money still in his war chest — one can’t completely dismiss the idea that Jeb, however vaguely and improbably at this point,  is still somehow “in play.” His brief surge into second place in NH two weeks ago seemed to vindicate his decision to adopt a more deliberate grassroots approach — relying heavily on town halls, for example, a forum that showcases his reasoned and “wonkish” style. But the surge proved fleeting, and now donors, who threatened to abandon him over a month ago, are restless again.

If Bush can somehow make it to the top four in Iowa and move up in NH, ahead of Cruz, who has no chances there, he may still have a shot at a decent showing in SC – but only if he captures the endorsements of Nikki Haley and Tim Scott (Graham just endorsed him). From there, he’d go all out in Florida, where a massive television “air war” that only he and Trump can afford has been known to make a difference. But if he fails to best Rubio, the Sunshine State’s other Native Son, he’d be hard-pressed to keep going. And in the interim he would already have damaged the party’s chances of stopping Trump.  

A better man might fall on his sword now – rather than soldiering on in search of his lost dignity. But an even better man might not have run to begin with.