DES-MOINES—It’s all over but the shouting. And caucusing. Nobody knows what’s going to happen, of course. Nobody thought Rick Santorum would win Iowa last time. Nobody thought Hillary Clinton would win New Hampshire in 2008. We see through a glass darkly, yet we must pretend to see clearly.
But guess what? The best football prognosticators don’t know what’s going to happen in the Super Bowl. This is not an indictment on commentators or analysts, but rather, a recognition that this is an incredibly exciting day—and that there are too many variables to account for. In a way, this day is better suited to a humble conservative worldview. Assuming you know what’s going to happen is a fatal conceit.
With that in mind, what do I think might happen? [crscore]Ted Cruz[/crscore] is almost tailor-made for this state, and he has (by all accounts) built an incredibly sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation. Trump is the flashy candidate who wants to throw long passes; Ted Cruz’s campaign will be about blocking and tackling. The thing we know about blocking and tackling is that it always shows up; it doesn’t slump. I like Cruz to win, but again, who knows?
If Cruz loses, he will have expended tremendous time and energy and resources for a loss. And, if you believe the polling (a big “if”), that just might happen. Donald Trump’s outreach to evangelicals (helped by the endorsement of Jerry Falwell Jr.) seems to have amazingly worked, and Trump has almost surgically attacked Cruz’s weaknesses on issues like his Canadian birth, his position on ethanol, and his ties to Goldman Sachs.
I’m also keeping an eye on [crscore]Marco Rubio[/crscore]. Unlike Cruz (who may have peaked too soon in Iowa), Rubio appears to have timed his surge just right. A strong third-place finish in Iowa could propel him into a strong second-place finish in New Hampshire. And that could propel him to finally get the “establishment” lane to coalesce behind him. Rubio doesn’t control his own destiny. He needs things to fall just right. But he’s in a position where they just might.
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A quick update on my new book Too Dumb to Fail is in order.
Salon (of all places) has posted an excerpt of Too Dumb to Fail’s chapter on Con$ervative ScamPACs. Check it out.
Also, the Buffalo News has penned a terrific review of Too Dumb to Fail. Here’s a snippet:
Lewis writes with panache when he notes, “Today, the GOP is a traveling circus of empty-headed talking point reciters, rookie politicians who’ve never managed anything in their lives, media clowns like Donald Trump, professionally outraged shout-fest talking heads, and so on.”
This is a run-on sentence so deliciously true that pundits can’t help but run with it.
Lastly, if you’re in the DC-area, I will be speaking at the Leadership Institute’s Wednesday Wake-Up Club Breakfast on Feb. 3. You can sign up for just $5—if you register today.