Three German states hit the polls for local elections Sunday in what experts believe could determine the future of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s political career.
What usually gathers little attention nationally has now been dubbed “Super Sunday” by the media for the implications it may have on German society going forward. The typical issues of education and care for the elderly are completely sidelined by the national refugee policy in this year’s election.
It is the first election of any kind since the refugee crisis started last September. Merkel will get the first official reaction from the people for her open-door policy, which more than one million refugees have taken advantage of.
Two things seems certain going into the election: Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will lose significant ground, and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) will reach levels a nationalist party hasn’t seen in a long time.
While the elections will have no effect on Merkel’s power or ability to rule, devastating results could lead to a push for the chancellor’s resignation from her own party members. Merkel’s approval rating has plummeted in recent months, with a January poll showing 40 percent called for her resignation. She has been able to regain some of her support following strong dealings with the European Union, but her own party members are getting increasingly worried about the outlook.
CDU comes into Sunday expected to lose one state, fight for a tie in one and comfortably win the third. The problem for Merkel is the refugee policy is both giving rise to anti-immigration nationalist party AfD, which is polling well above 10 percent in all three states. AfD is getting the vast majority of of its support from previous CDU supporters, which by extension favors the Left and Green parties.
The surge of anti-immigration AfD worries people across the political spectrum, especially with the national election just a year away.
Similar parties have been trending in almost every European country over the past decade. Up until recently, Germany has been one of few exceptions, with World War II still fresh in voters’ minds.
AfD’s sudden rise to fame is almost completely the creation of Merkel’s open-border policies and the increasing fear of what it will mean for the future of the country. While other pro-refugee leaders have backed down in recent months, Merkel has, for the most part, stuck by her original rhetoric and fought an uphill battle in negotiations with the European Union.
In Baden-Württemberg, CDU has been the largest party continuously since the end of WWII. It polled at 40 percent as late as September 2015, but support is now down to 28.8 percent. The Green Party now has a seven-point lead in the conservative stronghold. For CDU, it will be a battle to maintain as much ground as it can, and limit the number of seats it looses to AfD. Merkel has spent much time in the state trying to persuade voters to stick with CDU and think twice before casting a vote for AfD.
“Many people around the country are unhappy and may think now is the time to teach the government a lesson,” Merkel said at a rally Wednesday, according to The Guardian. “But this is about you and your choices.”
Some CDU members in Baden-Württemberg are actively opposing Merkel’s foreign policies at rallies to maintain as much support as they can.
“We’ll lose 8-10 percent of our votes to the AfD,” Hans-Günther Knaupp, a lawyer and CDU member, told The Guardian at a rally Tuesday. “Her course on the refugee crisis is the right one for the world, but it’s the wrong one for her party here in Baden-Württemberg.”
In Saxony, the only state CDU feels confident of winning, AfD is looking at 19 percent in the latest polls. The numbers have risen at such an unprecedented level that it’s still hard to predict where it will end up Sunday. What seems clear is the Social Democrats — CDU’s closest ally in the state — will finish well below AfD. This could prove problematic for CDU as it will be forced to turn farther to the left for support to get legislation passed.
CDU is neck-to-neck with the Social Democrats at 35 percent in Rhineland-Palatinate. The regional CDU leader is Julie Kloeckner, who many believe will succeed Merkel one day. A victory in the state would be crucial moving forward for Merkel, and could potentially even give her some momentum for the 2017 elections. But if CDU stands to lose two out of three states, the already vocal call for Merkel’s resignation among conservatives could continue to grow.
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