President Barack Obama has frequently referenced threats of instability in the Middle East, Afghanistan, Africa and warned how these areas can become safe havens for terrorist networks. But even without the threat of terrorism, instability can lead to ethnic and other conflicts, as already witnessed in parts of the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and throughout Africa.
The instability Obama refers to is the proliferation of “failed states” – states that due to instability, have effectively become unable to enforce its laws, unable to provide basic goods and services to its people and unable to protect its own borders and security.
The Middle East is a germane example, where the Arab Spring of hope quickly turned into the Arab Winter of discontent. Countries like Iraq and Syria have quickly devolved into chaos, allowing for groups like ISIS to gain a foothold by taking advantage of the complete breakdown of security, especially with the vacuum left by the U.S. pull-out. The effect is that West is forced to reengage in an expensive and protracted fight against them – a fight that cannot be done by any single country.
Nigeria, another example, where the world’s deadliest terrorist group, Boko Haram, grew strong due to the government’s inability to enforce security, and now is accountable for to more deaths than ISIS. The U.S, lacking any overall strategy, ignores this, as the conflict seems to some as lacking globally.
Realistically, the U.S. lacks the resources and, indeed, the willpower to support each trouble spot the world over. Therefore, it is vital to proceed with a targeted strategy to allocate resources, diplomatic, political and military, to countries that can be of benefit to both global security and ideally ones with a shared value system.
Nations like Azerbaijan are perfect candidates.
Although occasionally criticized by the U.S. State Department, hardly an authority on moral clarity, Azerbaijan fits well into the criteria of the type of alliances the U.S. should be developing and building.
Born out of the collapse of the Soviet Union, it could well have fallen into the “failed state” definition were it not for the drive toward Westernism by people of Azerbaijan, led by the formidable and dynamic Heydar Aliyev. Under his leadership and successive leaders, namely Ilham Aliyev, the nation has managed to build itself from humble beginnings and dependent on Russian resources into a successful nation and a regional leader in technology, energy, aerospace, military industry, and the recent drop in oil prices notwithstanding, an economic powerhouse.
By stepping out of the shadow of the former Soviet Union, it has geared its foreign policies closer in alignment with Europe and the U.S., maintained a staunch independence in its economic and foreign policy dealings and has become an indispensable stabilizing factor for its entire region. Azerbaijan has also become an essential strategic partner in the global war on terror, as well as a partner to the U.S. and NATO in operations in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan and in nuclear non-proliferation undertakings.
Azerbaijan has also provided to the U.S. and NATO blanket overflight rights, cooperation on intelligence and law enforcement, as well as the use of its bases. In addition to logistical support, it also supplies intelligence on terror financing.
Critically, it supplies energy security to the West through its Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline – a pipeline that is independent of OPEC, Russian or Iranian influences and championed by the U.S. Currently, Azerbaijan, in cooperation with Western corporations and governments is building a network of natural gas pipelines from Azerbaijan’s vast gas fields in the Caspian directly to Europe, thus alleviating Europe of geo-political and geo-economic dependence on the ever-tumultuous Russia.
Azerbaijan’s reputation for ethnic tolerance is especially laudable, given the many wars and violence in the region since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
We must also remember that Azerbaijan is an emerging democracy, which means that at times there is a struggle for it to shed its image under an oppressive totalitarian Soviet regime and as a new player in the democracies of the world. Consequently, it often comes under intense scrutiny and accusations, just as many post-Soviet countries and post-Communist countries have. However, in the Fragile States Index, an annual report produced by the U.S. think tank Fund for Peace, which uses 12 criteria for rating a country, including social indicators, economic indicators and political indicators, Azerbaijan has shown a steady improvement each year since 2008. In other words, the country is becoming stronger and more secure.
When one considers the amount of money the U.S. wastes on countries with very little benefit, reportedly around $2 trillion in Iraq for example, it would make sense for them to show support for ones that actually work with it and contribute to the world in so many areas.
Justin Amler is a noted South African born, Australia-based writer and commentator on international issues. His expertise is on the Middle East, Eurasia and the former Soviet Union.