Donald Trump says he will “rewrite the electoral map” in 2016 by drawing Blue states like Pennsylvania back into the GOP fold. It’s an exciting prospect that could make it easier for Republicans to capture the White House in November.
But Trump’s bold strategy also assumes that he can prevent once-reliable Red states like Georgia from defecting to the Democrats.
Can he?
Recent polling in Pennsylvania and Georgia points to a complex portrait of how voter allegiances may be shifting in this election cycle. It’s not quite clear what combination of factors is driving the shift — and which party, in the end, might benefit more from it. Still, evidence of a Trump surge is undeniable.
Take Pennsylvania. The last Republican to carry the state was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Since then, one Republican candidate after another has become distracted by the hope that he might somehow recapture Pennsylvania for the GOP.
Four years ago, when Mitt Romney decided early on not to contest Pennsylvania, it seemed that Republicans had finally abandoned their “Keystone folly.”
But that was before Trump appeared. A spate of polls conducted since March of this year suggests that Pennsylvania is once again “in play.” The most recent, conducted two weeks ago, found Clinton leading Trump by a single point 43-42 percent, with 15 percent undecided.
Those surveyed said they found the billionaire real estate mogul to be more honest, more trustworthy and a stronger leader than the former First Lady. And they trusted him more than Clinton to handle the economy and terrorism.
But compare Trump’s advantage in Pennsylvania with what’s happening in Georgia, a state that hasn’t tilted Democratic since 1992 when Bill Clinton, a Southerner, won. Three recent polls found Trump and Clinton in a statistical dead heat, with a large percentage undecided.
Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, Georgia, 16. So, a Trump victory in Pennsylvania would be largely offset by a Clinton victory in Georgia.
Why the sudden shift in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia? It could be that long-standing demographic trends have brought new voter groups into play or have magnified the importance of some groups over others. If so, Trump and Clinton may simply be exploiting these deep-seated trends.
For example, Pennsylvania, despite leaning Democratic, has been trending conservative in areas around Pittsburgh in the southwest – once a Democratic bastion — for nearly two decades. In 2012, Romney actually bested Obama in this region, the first time a Republican has done so in two decades.
Unlike Romney, Trump plans to make Pennsylvania a centerpiece of his campaign. He’s not only targeting the Pittsburgh area but also coal country in the northeast. In areas like Luzerne, where registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans 3-2, coal miners that feel abandoned by the Democrats are responding enthusiastically to Trump’s promise to “bring the mining jobs back.”
Demographic changes are also a major factor in Georgia. More than 80 percent of the state’s population growth over the past decade was due to an increase in the African-American population, which leans heavily Democratic. In the past two elections, Obama came within five points of winning Georgia, compared to the double-digit losses Democrats typically suffer in the Peach State.
Democrats have already turned North Carolina into a swing state, due largely to a surge in African-American voters. (Obama won the state in 2008 but narrowly lost it to Romney in 2012). And Mississippi, which hasn’t voted Democratic since 1976, has also seen a huge growth in African-Americans, which might help put that state in play, too.
Still, there are several reasons the GOP is likely to gain more from the emergence of so many new swing states. First, there are more Pennsylvanias than Georgias on the map – states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Minnesota — so there are more opportunities for the GOP to gain.
Second, these more GOP-friendly states also contain considerably more electoral votes. (Michigan has 16, Wisconsin 10). Aside from Georgia the Red states that might swing Blue won’t add much to the Democratic win column (Mississippi, for example, has just six electoral votes).
Finally, turnout is likely to favor the GOP. Trump voters have already proven far more passionate and mobilized than Clinton voters, and Trump is bringing hundreds of thousands of previously unregistered voters to the polls. African-Americans may favor Clinton by a wide margin, but without Obama on the ticket, their level of enthusiasm for the Democrats has sharply declined.
With 15 percent or more of the electorate still undecided six months before the election, it’s risky to make firm predictions. But if Pennsylvania is any indication, Trump’s candidacy promises to widen the GOP’s path to the White House, forcing Clinton to spread her campaign resources more thinly, and increasing the chances of a Republican victory in November.