Statistics site 538 adjusted their running odds of the race Monday to give Republican nominee Donald Trump a 58 percent chance of winning, up from 39 percent just three days ago.
538 placed less emphasis on the popular vote and more emphasis on the results of the electoral college. According to their analysis, Donald Trump has a good chance of earning 285 of the electoral votes in play, compared to Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton’s 252.
The research firm put several key swing states within Trump’s grasp based on recent statewide polls that show Donald Trump making significant gains in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
Although Clinton leads in other key states like Virginia and Wisconsin, the three states most rated to tip the election in any candidate’s favor are Florida, with a 17.2 percent “tip rating,” Ohio, with a 13.6 percent rating, and Pennsylvania, with a 12.2 percent rating. The higher the rating, the greater the chance that state will be the tipping point in a close general election. Trump carries all three states with a small, but increasing margin.
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia awarded all of those swing states to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton based on voter demographics. Donald Trump earned a large bump in poll numbers following the Republican National Convention, and that bump is what changed the map for 538.
Silver’s 538 also rated the probability of “crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios,” giving a 93 percent probability that Trump will win at least one state that Obama won in 2012. The odds are good that the outcome won’t be a repeat of the 2000 election in which Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote, but lost the electoral college. There is only a 1.8 percent chance of that happening to Trump, and a slightly higher 6.6 percent of Clinton losing in that way.
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