Those hoping Donald Trump losing the presidential election will vanquish his political movement may be in for some bad news, if one new study is proven right.
Justin Gest, a public policy professor at George Mason University, wrote in Politico Magazine Tuesday that an extensive survey he conducted of white working-class politics found 65 percent of white Americans would support a “nativist” third party. Gest defined this party’s platform as “stopping mass immigration, providing American jobs to American workers, preserving America’s Christian heritage, and stopping the threat of Islam,” an agenda that is remarkably similar to Trump’s own campaign rhetoric.
“Clearly, Trump’s allure is bigger than Trump himself,” the scholar concluded after stating the large number of Americans who support his hypothetical political group, which is apparently greater than the percentage of respondents who back Trump’s own campaign. (RELATED: Nationalism Beyond Trump)
“65 percent is a whopping number — in fact, it’s significantly more than those who expressed support for Trump’s candidacy in my research,” Gest writes.
The demographics of who would support this nationalist third party roughly correspond with Trump’s base of support. “[T]hose who would consider voting for this third party are more likely to be male, of lower socioeconomic status, without a university education and ideologically conservative — in other words, the Republican Party’s longtime base,” Gest says. “They are also more likely to be young (under 40 years old) — so this is not a phenomenon likely to pass quickly.”
The George Mason professor believes this presents a serious question about the Republican Party’s future and demonstrates how Trumpism will survive no matter what the results are in November.
“Based on my research, even were Trump to lose in 2016, his movement of supporters will likely yearn for others like him to fill the void in American politics. And if Republicans, in an attempt to appeal to independent voters and the growing minority population, pivot away from Trump’s rhetoric, they could face internal upheaval, and perhaps even widescale defection to a third party from this 65 percent of whites,” Gest argues.
At the same time, he thinks that the GOP embracing Trumpism will usher “in an era of unprecedented Democratic dominance” due to the likelihood of turning away minority voters.
The solution for the Republican Party, according to Gest, is to appeal to the problems of its white, working-class base without compromising its principles. On that subject, he offers the vague plans of “equal access to education, strategic taxation, economic development and fair market practices” to alleviate the alienation Trump’s base feels in 21st-century America.
Whether those plans would actually do that, or even appeal to Trump’s voters, is unclear. However, Gest warns that the GOP must reckon with its own base — or face electoral doom.
“Unless Republicans address the real problems experienced by their base, their schism will endure and a third party may rise.”