Elections

Clinton Barely Leads Trump In Florida

Republican nominee Donald Trump maintained his position in Florida polls, overturning Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s prior nine-point lead.

Although Clinton still has a two-point lead, according to the Mason-Dixon poll published Friday, it is much smaller than the nine-point lead she enjoyed in a Monmouth University poll published last week.

Clinton leads Trump 44 to 42 percent in new polls. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson polled worse than his national average, at 6 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein polled at 2 percent. There were only 6 percent recorded undecided.

Clinton earned 83 percent support from Democrats, 51 percent of women, 91 percent of black voters, and 63 percent of Hispanic voters. Trump earned a comparatively low 78 percent of Florida Republicans, as well as independent voters, with 44 percent. Trump also won the areas of North Florida and Southwest Florida.

Trump leads in the central Florida region, which contains Orlando, by 46 to 42 percent.

A recent Florida Atlantic University poll gave Trump the lead at 43 to 41 percent. Polls show Clinton hasn’t been close to the 50 percent mark in the state since the Monmouth University poll, and that was the first time Clinton obtained a lead that sizable within Florida.

Political statistics site FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 38.3 percent chance of winning the state, based on current polling and the site’s own forecasting algorithms. Clinton has a 61.7 percent chance of winning the state in the published prediction. FiveThirtyEight predicts Florida is most likely to be a determining factor in the general election, at 16.8 percent.

The poll went from Aug. 22-24, and surveyed 624 likely voters across the state of Florida. The poll used cellphone and landline phones, and carried a margin of error of 4 percentage points in either direction.

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