Republican nominee Donald Trump and pundits continue to insist that most national polls don’t show the complete picture — they aren’t clear how millennials and U.S. citizens living overseas plan to vote in November.
Trump supporters believe the Republican nominee is not only expanding the Republican party, but bringing in millions of first-time voters who will tip the scales in his favor. Two groups — expatriates and millennials — could reverse the polling data.
Trump is winning in the polls with likely and registered voters, but most polls don’t include the millions of first-time voters.
— Mike (@mike4193496) September 15, 2016
Republican National Committee Sean Spicer weighed in as well, going on MSNBC in May to discuss the possibility that Trump could open up the traditional GOP base to include independents.
To be sure, Trump broke records with his primary turnout, and received a lot more votes than Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton did in her primary. Through the middle of May, Trump received over 4 million more primary votes than Hillary Clinton, sparking many Trump supporters to assert that the polls don't matter, because they don't really survey who will actually vote in November.
@BobMorris25 @realDonaldTrump This is precisely why I think the polls are wrong. MANY silent Trump supporters will make Trump win on Nov 8th
— Anthony (@turtle000525) September 13, 2016
@ArmorCavSpin @FLMENFORTRUMP @BreitbartNews These polls are wrong I'd say Trump is up by 20 to Hillbanger
— Timothy Robertson (@SlimTim925) September 12, 2016
Millennials aren't dependable voters for either party in 2016, and it's difficult to tell how likely they will vote based on current methodology. While citizens living overseas don't traditionally vote, interest groups are making it easier to cast ballots, which could precipitate higher turnout.
Political research firm Optimus published a study about the 2016 primary turnout in several battleground states in May, analyzing the claim that high GOP primary turnout came from Democrats and Independents. Researchers discovered that the Republican primaries experienced much higher popularity than previous presidential primaries.
A solid majority of 81.4 percent of all GOP votes cast in the Virginia primary were Republican voters who had never turned out in a primary. Of that group, 72.1 percent had voted in the last two presidential general elections in their respective state.
It should be noted that a high turnout in the primary election, doesn't equate to a high turnout of non-Republican voters in the general election.
On average, only 5.7 percent of voters did not have a history to track, and an additional 3.6 percent were too young to have a voter history before the primary. All told, roughly 10 percent of votes for Trump were from people who had never voted before, although exit polls suggests they leaned Republican.
Experts agree it is unlikely Trump will gain support from many Independents, and even fewer Democrats. A recent Red Oak Strategic poll revealed Trump only earned 24.2 percent of the Independent vote, and 6 percent of the Democratic vote. Trump earned 68 percent of Republicans in the same poll.
In order to understand how millennials and expats could override the polls in November, it is important to understand how polls select who gets the coveted "likely voters" assignment.
Simply asking voters if they plan to vote in the general election isn't a good indicator of whether or not someone plans to vote, according to Gallup Polling. Analysts find that asking the question overestimates voting turnout by as much as 30 percent. Instead, there are a series of questions that indicate the likelihood someone will turn out to vote.
Questions like "Do you know your polling location," and "How many times have you voted in the past?" are much more revealing. Based on respondent's answers, researchers assign a number of that particular person's data set. For example, a 6.3 could mean a 63 percent chance of voting.
Respectable polling organizations will simply provide the data set from voters who are more likely to vote, only including data from voters with a 5.6, or higher. While other polling organizations will continue down the list until they hit a pre-selected number of "likely voters" for the sample, no matter the probability. That means likely voters have different probabilities from poll to poll.
Selecting likely voters has worked out very well for polling organizations in the past. Most national polling averages have only been 2 to 3 percentage points off, within the posted margin of error.
The 2016 general election poses unique challenges to pollsters. Millennial voters were very active in the primary, but just not for the candidates who won either major party nomination. Clinton earned 30 percent of the millennial vote, and Trump won between 20 to 30 percent, trailing both Cruz and Rubio with the demographic.
Young voters are still unsure where to place their vote. Twenty-five percent of College Republicans say they will not support or vote for Trump -- a little higher than the 20 percent of those under the age of 30 who report they plan to vote for the Republican nominee.
Young voters across the aisle overwhelmingly supported Sen. Bernie Sanders during the primary, and Clinton is still struggling to earn their support. The biggest question is turnout, since young voters are unlikely to have a voting history, and are least likely to be registered, or know where to vote, when compared to other age groups.
Another group historically difficult to adequately poll are U.S. citizens who live overseas. There are a handful of states that allow them to register as absentee, including Texas, California, Florida, and Washington. There is hardly any data at all on the voting bloc. There are estimates that range from 6 to 9 million potential voters -- but, only roughly 12 percent voted in the 2012 presidential election.
Polls simply cannot reach citizens outside of the country, but this year, advocacy group Avaaz is working to make it easier than ever to order an absentee ballot through its new smartphone app.
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