Republican nominee Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House in November just went up, according to a Tuesday update at statistics site 538.
Trump’s chances of winning rose to 41.1 percent, up from 29.9 percent only ten days ago. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton still carried greater odds at 58.9 percent, but is on a downward trend. Clinton had a 70 percent chance of winning on Sept. 10.
Trump briefly flirted with the lead in Nate Silver’s analysis during the final days of July. Trump carried a 50.1 percent chance of winning, and Clinton had a close 49 percent chance of winning.
538 still thinks Clinton would win if the election were held today. The site’s “now-cast” gives Clinton a 58.8 percent chance of winning today, compared to Trump’s 41.2 percent.
Trump overturned a large Clinton lead earlier in September, and continues to gain in the polls. Clinton still leads with the Real Clear average by 1.3 percentage points, but Trump earned a five-point lead in the latest LA Times daily tracking poll.
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