The two North Korean missiles that exploded shortly after launch recently may have been long-range missiles capable of reaching the U.S.
U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) detected two North Korean missile tests Oct. 15 and Oct. 20, but in both cases, the tests were distinctly unsuccessful. USSTRATCOM indicated that both missiles were Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM), weapons capable of hitting U.S. targets in Guam. While IRBMs are troublesome enough, one expert believes that the North Koreans may really be testing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM).
“We’re not fully persuaded that it was a Musudan,” Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California, explained to the Washington Post. USSTRATCOM misidentified missiles in the past. USSTRATCOM identified the three ballistic missiles launched Sept. 5 as IRBMs, but they were actually ER (extended-range) Scuds.
“We think it is important that people consider the possibility that this was a KN-08 test,” Lewis said.
Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned that the North Koreans were working on an ICBM in June, 2011. The KN-08, a road-mobile ICBM, was first presented publicly at a military parade in April, 2012. Since then, Pyongyang has conducted several rocket engine tests for the KN-08; however, it was assumed that the missile has never been flight tested, but that may not be the case.
Satellite images of the launch site in Kusong show burn scars much larger than those left by previous Musudan missile tests, Lewis pointed out.
One of the burn scars was even bigger than the other, indicating that the missile exploded close to the ground, potentially damaging the mobile launcher. The other missile may get off the ground before malfunctioning. The big burn scar ” is consistent with a catastrophic failure,” Lewis noted.
For the time being, North Korea does not have a functional ICBM, but it may be working to change its current situation.
North Korea conducted its fifth and most powerful nuclear test to date Sept. 9. Pyongyang claims that the North could miniaturize a nuclear weapon and mount it on a ballistic missile; however, there is no immediately verifiable evidence that the North Koreans possess this technology.
North Korea’s ultimate goal is nuclear-tipped ICBMs capable of hitting the U.S.
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