During this Presidential election, we have been subjected to numerous Brexit comparisons, many of them flawed. In particular, the polling analog that is often cited by Donald Trump supporters is misleading. While its victory was somewhat surprising, “leave” was ahead in numerous credible scientific polls, and even when trailing, the race was typically well within the margin of error.
Conversely, Trump is almost universally behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and several polls how her in double-digit leads. The “Brexit effect” would need to be much larger for Trump to pull off a surprise victory.
While the polling comparison isn’t really right, there is an important analogy between the two races. It isn’t that Trump has expressed skepticism towards immigration and trade deals. There are numerous parties around the world today (ie the National Front) and in decade past (ie William Jennings Bryan) that have expressed similar views; they are not that unique. Rather, there is a far more striking similarity: what is on the ballot.
The United Kingdom voted on whether to stay in the European Union. The United States is about to vote on whether we turn into Europe. Voters, especially hesitant conservatives, need to recognize this stark, nation-defining choice we are about to make.
For eight years, we have labored under a President hell-bent on “fundamentally transforming” America. As evidenced during his first campaign, Barack Obama was more at home among the adoring crowds of Berlin, Germany than those pesky, gun and religion-slinging simpletons in Berlin, Pennsylvania and elsewhere. And so, for his two terms, Obama has been molding America more and more into a European-styled state.
Most notably, Obama went after our healthcare system, which while imperfect has fostered more innovation and life-saving drugs than any other nation’s system. Unsurprisingly, Obamacare is causing prices to soar—healthcare.gov exchange premiums are set to rise 22% in 2017—while competition is being stifled as insurers drop out of the exchanges altogether. Consumers are being left with unaffordable, bloated one-size-fits-all plans that have forced millions to change doctors. Obamacare has shrunk the number of plans, made the big insurers even bigger, and forced Americans to buy a product some don’t even want. Obamacare is a clear stepping-stone to a European single-payer, socialized system. We need to repeal this law before it becomes too entrenched to fix.
The Europeanization doesn’t stop there. While prudent financial regulation is a must, Dodd-Frank has made it harder for banks to lend to small and medium-sized businesses. Meanwhile, the largest banks have gotten even larger, resembling Europe’s megabanks, as regulations have made it harder for regional and community banks to compete. We are left with a financial system that is more concentrated where top banks have even more power, politically and financially. It is no coincidence big banks like Goldman Sachs have paid over $200,000 to hear Clinton speak…
Don’t believe me? Well, Clinton laid her ambition bare in a speech to one of the big banks as she called for a “hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders.” That sounds awfully similar to Europe’s current construct. Being able to control who enters your country is a foundational sovereign right, one which many European nations have ceded. As evidenced by the unprecedented migrant crisis, the consequences can be devastating. Just ask one of the hundreds of German women sexually assaulted this past New Year’s Eve.
The Democratic establishment looks to Europe and wants America to be more like that; that much is clear. What is puzzling is why they feel that way. The Italian economy is smaller today than fifteen years ago, and the unemployment rate is stuck stubbornly above 9%. In countries like Spain, youth unemployment exceeds 40%. GDP growth typically falls short of 2%. Geopolitically, the continent is increasingly irrelevant, and their military power has atrophied as many free-load off NATO, enjoying America’s protection. Most of Europe has rising debt, and unfunded entitlements that will eventually cause crisis. Given their love for continental Europe, many on the left seem willing to accept less wealth just so long as it is spread out “better.”
If that’s America’s future, my generation will not enjoy the gains of my parents, a first in our history. Sadly, the ill effects of Obama’s transformation are becoming clear. This is America’s weakest expansion in decades. There have been as many quarters of 2% or lower annualized sequential GDP growth in the Obama expansion as there were in the Reagan, Clinton, and George W Bush expansions—combined. Median incomes are no higher than in 1998. The middle class has suffered two lost decades, not dissimilar from Italy! America has historically averaged 3% GDP growth; if we continue down Europe’s path, growth will be more like 2%. That difference in growth compounded over 20 years is over $20,000 in per capita GDP. $20,000 less for every man, woman, and child? That is a dramatic difference in living standards.
Obama has been shifting America towards Europe, despite the pitfalls. It is Clinton’s dream to continue the Obama transformation. With 12 (or even more) years of this kind of leadership, reversing course back into the American tradition of hard work, individual responsibility, free markets, and free people could prove to be all but impossible. Is Donald Trump perfect? No, but together with a republican congress, he can begin to roll back these changes and return America to a course of prosperity and security while taking power from an entrenched, corrupt political-corporate-media establishment and returning it to we the people.
The choice this November is much bigger than Clinton v. Trump. It’s about choosing paths: Europe or America. If conservatives and independents don’t rally behind Trump in these closing days, the very essence of America is under threat.