The U.S. effort in Afghanistan will continue to suffer without a radical new approach, Defense Intelligence Agency chief Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart told Congress Thursday.
Stewart further warned that continuation down the current road in Afghanistan could tip the battle in favor of Taliban insurgents, who currently control nearly one-third of the Afghan population. The Taliban also control more territory than at any time since the U.S. invasion in 2001.
Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats similarly testified that “the overall situation in Afghanistan will very likely continue to deteriorate, even if international support is sustained.” The Afghan National Security Forces and government are supported by NATO and the U.S. with billions of dollars in assistance per year. The U.S. also has nearly 8400 troops in Afghanistan to support the Afghans in train, advise, and assist missions.
Coats testimony painted a particularly bleak picture of Afghanistan saying the Afghan’s “performance will probably worsen due to a combination of Taliban operations, ANSF combat casualties, desertions, poor logistics support, and weak leadership. The ANSF will almost certainly remain heavily dependent on foreign military and financial support to sustain themselves and preclude their collapse.”
Coats’ and Stewart’s stark assessment of the war come amid serious discussions within the Trump administration about increasing the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Proponents of the plan say the new troops will be used to embed advisors at lower unit levels with the Afghan National Security Forces to better enable them in the fight against the Taliban.
President Donald Trump is expected to rule on the plan before a meeting with NATO heads of state on May 25. NATO Secretary General Jans Stoltenberg has also indicated the alliance may join the Trump administration in a troop increase, if that course of action is taken.
The U.S. and NATO proposal also includes changing the U.S. military’s rules of engagement while supporting ANSF. The goal is to curb the Taliban’s battlefield gains and push them into entering a peace process with the Afghan government.
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