The United States is on track to have one of its lowest crime rates in decades, according to a new research study published on Wednesday.
Researchers at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law surveyed police departments in America’s 30 largest cities and used historical trends to predict end-of-year crime totals for 2017.
Researchers Ames Grawert and James Cullen estimated that for 2017 the overall crime rate will be fewer than 4,000 crimes per 100,000 people – a drop of 1.8 percent which would rank as the second lowest crime rate since 1990.
The projected murder rate is expected to decrease by 2.5 percent which is due to a sharp decline in murders in “Detroit (down 25.6 percent), Houston (down 20.5 percent), and New York (down 19.1 percent).”
Despite constant media buzz from right-of-center media outlets about shootings and murders in Chicago, the city is expected to see a 2.4 percent decrease in the number of murders it sees for 2017.
Overall, the violent crime rate is expected to remain stable with only a .6 percent decrease.
“This result is driven primarily by stabilization in Chicago, and declines in Washington, D.C., two large cities that experienced increases in violence in recent years,” the study notes. “The violent crime rate for this year is projected to be about 1 percent above 2014’s violent crime rate, the lowest recorded since 1990.”
While crime is down in 2017, some cities are seeing an increase in crime. The study highlights Charlotte’s murder rate as an example, citing that the cities murder rate has nearly doubled so far in 2017.
Crime in 2017: A Preliminary Analysis by The Brennan Center for Justice on Scribd