Energy

Opponents Admit Trump’s Solar Tariffs Aren’t Actually That Bad

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Chris White Tech Reporter
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Opponents of the Trump administration’s solar panel tariffs acknowledge the president’s protectionist gambit could have been a lot worse.

Panel providers at first thought President Donald Trump’s decision Monday to slap a 30 percent tariff on foreign panel instruments would wreck the industry. Some analysts warn the industry should be able to absorb the policy with minimal damage.

“The bottom line is it could have been much worse,” Ethan Zindler, a top analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance and hawkish defender of imports, told reporters at Axios Tuesday. Cheap solar panels have allowed “solar to be cost competitive on an unsubsidized basis in many parts of the world,” he added.

The tariffs are expected to decline over the course of four years, moving from 30 percent, 25 percent, 20 percent and eventually 15 percent. They are lower than the 35 percent the U.S. International Trade Commission initially recommended in 2017. There were concerns Trump was considering leveling a 50 percent tariff.

Trump’s decision to go lenient could have a negligible effect on the industry. There will be a “relatively benign” impact, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. Domestic panel producers will see a three percent to seven percent cost increase for residential and utility-scale solar costs, respectively. Those numbers will continue to tumble as the tariff lessens.

Energy analyst group ClearView Energy Partners made a similar calculation Monday.

“At first blush, it appears that internationalist, free-market advocates within the Administration may have successfully redirected the President away from more aggressive trade remedies that hew to his America First policy platform and persistently strong trade rhetoric,” ClearView said in a statement shortly after the announcement.

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Two cash-strapped solar companies were responsible for petitioning ITC for protection against Chinese and other foreign green energy producers. Suniva and SolarWorld, both of which are owned by foreign companies in China and Germany, respectively, orchestrated the push in 2017 to enact tariffs on cheap technology from China a week after they filed for bankruptcy in April of that year.

New tariffs on imports have roiled the solar industry, which has benefited from a 70 percent drop thanks to cheap imports and federal subsidies in the cost of solar since 2010. People began purchasing panels at record rates ahead of the trade commission’s vote.

The solar industry grew by leaps and bounds during the past decade, mostly because green energy providers have capitalized on hefty government subsidies and tax credits. Solar prices have declined by more than 50 percent since 2011 as a result and has allowed the industry to add more than 50,000 jobs in 2016.

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