The 2018 Hurricane Season Might Not Be Very Active After All
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season might not be as active as forecasters initially thought, two groups of meteorologists predict.
Colorado State University (CSU) meteorologists published an updated hurricane season outlook on Monday, lowering their prediction of named storms mainly due to cold tropical ocean temperatures and high wind shear.
CSU forecasted 14 total named storms in May, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Now, CSU experts only foresee 11 named storms, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane — meaning a storm Category 3 or higher.
“The tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased,” Phil Klotzbach, head CSU hurricane forecaster, wrote in the latest forecast.
“With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well,” Klotzbach wrote, cautioning that coastal residents, however, “should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
Likewise, University of Arizona meteorologists released their own forecast on Monday, predicting four hurricanes, including two major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin for 2018 — one of the lowest forecasts out there. (RELATED: Does Air Pollution Cause Diabetes? That’s The Absurd Question American Tax Dollars Paid To Answer)
Current Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecasts from 23 contributing agencies (e.g., government, university and private sector) via https://t.co/rwHBHR5KF6. Average of all 23 outlooks calls for 6 hurricanes – a near-average season. pic.twitter.com/YLubJk5SgK
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 2, 2018
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a “75-percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be near- or above-normal,” according to its May forecast.
NOAA forecasters only predicted “a 25 percent chance of a below-normal” hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to Nov. 30. On average, the Atlantic sees six hurricanes, including three major storms, in a season.
The revised Atlantic hurricane season forecasts are welcome news to Caribbean and coastal residents, in particular since the incredibly active 2017 hurricane season caused some $282 billion in damages.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season saw some of the strongest storms on record, including hurricanes Irma and Maria.