Rick Santorum is riding a huge surge coming out of his victories in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri --- but I don't think the punditry recognizes the enormity of that surge. Conventional wisdom says we could now be on the road to a brokered convention, or a long Romney-Santorum fight, but that is not what the data suggests. As of now, all of the data suggests that this race will end on March 6th. On that night, there is a good chance that Santorum will be spiking the football in the end zone as he cruises to a blowout win on Super Tuesday.
4:31 PM 01/01/2012
’Tis the season for predictions, prognostications, and wild-eyed speculation regarding the year to come. Every pundit worth his salt wants to crank up the crystal ball in the hopes of getting an "I told you so" moment this time next year. I'm no different, but I wouldn't touch presidential election predictions with a 10-foot pole right now. What I do like to do, however, is try to predict a few of the names people will learn this year. On December 31, 2010, most people had never heard of Herman Cain, Jack Layton, Kim Jong-un, or Mohamed Bouazizi, but all four became big names in 2011. Not all of those types of stories can be predicted, but a few can. So, here are the five up-and-comers on the world stage that I will be watching this year. Each has a shot at making big news --- but will they succeed?
5:16 PM 12/14/2011
The fun thing about football is that it provides an escape from the day-to-day horribleness of the real world. Especially as someone who deals with politics every day, it's nice to spend part of my weekend with a game that represents nothing but pure, meaningless fun. Nobody dies if my team loses, there's always hope for next season and even the biggest arguments are over trivial things like the merits of a triple-option offensive scheme. The real world doesn't often pollute football.
1:39 PM 12/07/2011
It's a crisp autumn morning in the Bronx, and you can cut the anticipation with a knife. When Newt Gingrich scheduled this event in a poor, Hispanic neighborhood, everybody assumed it was just a nice photo-op leading into the convention. Then word came last night that Gingrich would be announcing his choice for vice president here, a few days earlier than expected. Given the odd location in a deep-blue Latino area, every media outlet got the hint --- it was going to be Marco Rubio.
3:42 PM 11/21/2011
I was going to title this column "Why Newt Gingrich Can Win," but then I realized that about this time last month I was writing a "Why Herman Cain Can Win" column and I’d essentially be recycling the same material. Both candidates have the potential to win the nomination without building the types of organizations that have traditionally been needed, because we’re entering an era in American politics where a candidate’s media and public relations skills are more important than his campaign’s ground organization, traditional fundraising prowess or paid advertising.
11:01 AM 10/11/2011
This is not a fanboy column about Herman Cain. I may wind up supporting Cain, but this is a column about political dynamics and how elections work. At the moment, I'm less infuriated by the debate about who should win than I am by the stubborn refusal of the punditry to acknowledge who actually is winning. If you listen to the talking heads on any network, the near-universal conclusion is that the collapse of Rick Perry makes a Mitt Romney nomination inevitable. Yes, Cain is surging, and in some polls has actually passed Romney for the lead, but this is dismissed as a flash in the pan that will soon fade due to Cain's relative lack of money and organization.
9:56 AM 10/06/2011
I've been a Palinista for going on four years now, starting back in 2007 when I anonymously launched a little website called "Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President." That site represented the first concrete, public expression of support for Governor Palin's leadership outside Alaska, and whatever influence you think it did or didn't have, it's certainly made my life interesting in the intervening years. It got me on national TV a few times, helped me establish my new life here in D.C., and introduced me to some amazing new friends. It's also gotten me yelled at by some of my closest friends, cost me job opportunities, and ostracized me from large portions of the Republican Party --- especially considering that I live and work around Capitol Hill, where being an out-and-proud Palin supporter is roughly equivalent to walking around with a "Kick Me" sign taped to your back (and that's just among the conservatives). So, naturally, no one wanted to see a Palin presidential campaign more than me --- not only for the good of the country, but also for the chance to avenge every ad hominem insult, sneer of contempt, and dehumanizing cultural slur that I've endured simply for defending Gov. Palin's humanity, let alone her politics.
11:54 AM 10/05/2011
Normally, when writing on political dynamics, one begins with a theory, presents a justification, and then details a potential result. But I'm impatient, so I thought it might be easier to crank up the Delorean and look at the end first. To that end, I've made up a crazy hypothetical brought back an important news report from the future to illustrate how Sarah Palin could ultimately become the establishment candidate in the race:
10:03 AM 09/13/2011
If the polls are right, the voters in the solidly Democratic New York City district that Anthony Weiner represented until earlier this year are about to elect long-shot Republican businessman Bob Turner to Congress.
11:59 AM 09/01/2011
Indiana's gubernatorial race is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided races of the 2012 election cycle. Rep. Mike Pence, a conservative rock star who could have been a top-tier presidential candidate, is set to make road kill of his hapless Democratic opponent on his way to the governor's mansion. The election of Pence would be one of the best things to ever happen to Indiana, but his path to office got a little bumpier this week thanks to libertarian philanthropist Rupert Boneham.
4:20 PM 08/25/2011
I had hoped to write my first Daily Caller op-ed on early vice-presidential speculation, or Sarah Palin's upcoming presidential campaign, or something remotely conservative. But sometimes major events snuff out our plans, and instead I find myself penning an obituary for a socialist Canadian politician who most Americans have never heard of.
