This column was co-written with Stephen Moore.
Larry Kudlow | All Articles
Just-published minutes from the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting indicate that most officials saw conditions for a rate liftoff as “not yet” achieved. They may be approaching a rate-hike moment, but they’re not there yet.
Pretty much everyone in the world wants the Federal Reserve to begin its “rate liftoff.” September is the latest target date for this market consensus. But permit me one dissenting question: Are yousure?
Or as the saying goes, be careful what you wish for.
With a record 24 million people watching the GOP debate, you’d think there would have been a lot more time spent on the most important issue of the day: the economy. Look at any poll. Jobs and the economy are always at the top of the list. But there was barely a mention of this on Thursday night.
Is Donald Trump a supply-sider? In his still young presidential campaign, he has said several times that he wants to be the “jobs president.” In his announcement speech, he put it this way: “I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created.”
The worst sectors of the worst recovery since World War II are business investment in new plants and equipment and new business start-ups. These are the biggest job-creators, and their slump is a key reason for the sub-par labor recovery, with low participation rates and high involuntary part-time workers.
Jeb Bush is right and Hillary Clinton is wrong. You can probably say that about a lot of things. But in this case it’s about the need for more part-time American workers to work full-time in order to improve their own lots as well as the lot of the economy.
The judicial decision to uphold all of the president’s health-care subsidies may be very disappointing, but the economics of Obamacare are far worse than whatever constitutional mistakes have been committed by the Supreme Court.
“There is not a reason in the world why we cannot grow at a rate of 4 percent a year.” That’s what Jeb Bush said when he officially announced his presidential run in Miami last week. And right off the bat, most economists trashed the idea.
Just as the great William F. Buckley Jr. laid the intellectual foundation for the rise of modern conservatism, philanthropist R. Randolph Richardson set down the financial foundation of the new conservative movement. But Randy Richardson, who died May 25 at the age of 89, is not a household name. He was a low-key guy who stayed out of the limelight, and he made a habit of giving credit to others. But like Buckley, he was a firm believer in a free society, free markets, and a strong defense to defeat communism. And the mark he made on the conservative movement is deep and lasting.
The strong May jobs report -- including a 280,000 jump in nonfarm payrolls -- reminds me of the big debate over the harmful effects of a strong dollar and falling oil prices. But where’s the harm? King Dollar, along with the supply benefits of the oil-fracking revolution, may actually be propping up a subpar economy facing headwinds from heavy business taxes and overregulation.
First-quarter real GDP actually declined by 0.7 percent, according to revisions out this week, creating much new talk about recession. But there is no recession. Trouble is, there continues to be virtually no recovery.
Janet Yellen told us last week that the fed funds target rate will be raised slightly later this year. But after that, future rate hikes will be small and gradual over the next several years. In fact, we may never have true normalization (4 percent). In my view, Yellen is offering a back-to-the-’50s approach to interest rates. And she’s right, though for many wrong reasons.
One of the interesting nuggets coming out of the conservative sweep in the British elections was the failure of bank-bashing by the Labour party. Labour leader Miliband, who has since resigned, was anti-bank, anti-rich, and anti-business. It failed. And while conservative leader David Cameron didn’t necessarily defend banks, he didn’t attack them either.
If the GOP doesn’t put together a sensible immigration policy it will lose the 2016 presidential election.
Don’t expect any miracles from the economy. But don’t expect a collapse either.
A number of GOP candidates are engaging in Hillary-bashing over allegations that she used her office as secretary of state to help her husband’s business dealings, prop up speech-making fees, and grease the path for foreign governments to donate massive amounts of money to the Clinton Foundation. But here’s a warning to my friends on the presidential campaign trail: Bashing Hillary is only going to make the Republican party look mean-spirited and snarky. It’s no road to the White House.
When John F. Kennedy was elected president he surprised both Democrats and Republicans with a bold tax-cutting plan to solve the problem of a moribund economy. He had campaigned on “getting the country moving again,” and had set a 5 percent economic-growth target, but he never specified how he was going to do it. Then he opened everyone’s eyes with a plan to lower marginal tax rates across-the-board.
If recent news accounts are to be believed, the framework of agreement between the U.S. and Iran is on the rocks. Iran’s top officials, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani, are saying economic sanctions must end immediately and that UN inspectors will not be granted unfettered access to military installations and nuclear construction sites.