The pundits who are trying to spin Tuesday’s election as the result of a simple anti-incumbent mood are not merely wrong; they are actively suppressing the truth. Had this been an anti-incumbent election, there would have been similar defeats on both sides. But a comparison of Democratic versus Republican incumbent defeats presents a stark and inescapable conclusion, particularly in the US House: voters rejected incumbent Democrats but not incumbent Republicans. Fifty Democratic incumbents lost their seats, compared to only two Republican incumbents. The two Republican incumbents who were defeated, Joseph Cao and Charles Djou, were both elected under unusual circumstances in heavily Democratic districts. Cao was elected in November 2008, and Djou was elected in May 2010, so both were just barely incumbents. (more)
A top Republican House official is voicing an optimistic take on the coming midterm election, vowing that Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s “days as speaker are numbered” and saying the Republicans are “already” slated to win 40 seats, with many more within reach. (more)
With the election a mere two weeks away, it would probably take a party-wide Republican scandal of Nixonian proportions to keep next year’s House in Democratic hands. (more)
For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist facts into pretzels in order to produce a desired result must be avoided at all costs.
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Republicans and conservatives in particular have been riding high as polls have shown independents moving away from the Democrats and toward them. This has especially been true since Sen. Scott Brown’s win last month in Massachusetts, in a seat once thought unwinnable for a Republican. (more)
President Obama must have seen the storm clouds brewing when he returned to the mainland after his Hawaiian vacation in January. The close of his first year in office was marked by the infamous Christmas “underwear bomber” and the “hold up” vote by Sen. Ben Nelson on final passage of the health care bill. Not good omens for the new year ahead. (more)
In a survey just published and available on the company’s website, but not yet publicized or reported, the left-leaning public opinion firm Democracy Corps confirms the dangers to Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections. (more)
