CNN data reporter Harry Enten outlined Friday how President Joe Biden is underperforming with black voters in polling regarding the upcoming presidential election.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday showed Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five out of six swing states, with Trump receiving 18% support from likely black voters in a head-to-head matchup compared to 70% for Biden. Enten broke down how Biden is faring in an average of polls, warning that the numbers are a “troubling sign.” (RELATED: CNN Data Analyst Says Hispanic Voters ‘Overwhelmingly Trust’ Trump On Border Security, Immigration)
“I think this is, the real thing, is sort of the drop-off, right?” Enten told “CNN News Central” host Sara Sidner. “Look, you look at 2024, Biden still leads among black voters over Donald Trump, 69% in an average of polls. But look at this number for Donald Trump, 22%, where was Donald Trump at this point four years ago? In the polls, he was just at 9% of the votes. So he’s seen more than a doubling in his support among African Americans.”
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“This margin, which was in the 70s just four years ago, look at where it is now, 69 minus 22. That puts it in the 40s. My goodness gracious,” Enten said. “If this held through the general election, obviously we’re still months away, this would be by far the best performance for Republican candidate among black voters in a generation, two generations, probably since 1960 and Richard Nixon against John Kennedy, that’s how long we’re really talking about when we’re looking at this margin here. This could be a truly historic margin. It’s quite a troubling sign for the Biden campaign.”
Trump currently leads Biden by 1.1% in the RealClearPolitics average of general election polls for a head-to-head matchup, with the lead growing to 2.7% when Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidates Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are included.
Enten then took a deeper dive into the numbers, noting a breakdown by age after Sidner asked where Biden was struggling among black voters. (RELATED: ‘The Only Candidate Joe Biden Could Beat Is Donald Trump’: CNN Data Reporter Weighs In On 2024)
“Who are these voters? And let’s break it down by age, because I really think this gives you a good insight into what’s exactly cookin’ here,” Enten said. “Take a look here. If you look among black voters age 50 and over, you’ll see that Joe Biden has a very substantial lead here. Look at this at 82% to 8%, this lead is still in the 70s. This looks a lot like what we saw in the overall polling back in 2020.”
“Well, look at voters under the age of 50. Look here, Donald Trump is pulling 25% of that vote: Joe Biden as it just 62% of this, this lead’s, Sarah, this lead is just south of 40 percentage points,” Enten continued. “This is historic. This is what a lot of folks been talking about that Joe Biden has a specific problem among younger black voters, and that is exactly what’s showing up right here and this is, I think, a lot of the reason why you‘re going to see Biden focusing more on black voters.”
Several black voters told an MSNBC panel that they were considering voting for Trump due to the economy, while “Breakfast Club” host Charlamagne Tha God told The New York Times that black voters saw “tangible things” from Trump, citing stimulus checks and the First Step Act.
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