The two Morgan Stanley economists who beat 50 other forecasters in guessing how bad 2009 would be did it by predicting soaring unemployment—though even they didn’t see it hitting 10%—and a U.S. economy that would start sputtering back to life by the end of the year.
All the survey economists, to some degree, were blindsided by the depth of the recession.
Full story: Top 2009 Forecasters Saw High Unemployment – WSJ.com