Just when things couldn’t get any better for conservatives in November, they did. The retirement announcement of Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens just offered them another issue for the fall election. Ironically, as dissimilar as they appear, the confirmation of a new justice offers conservatives the same favorable dynamics that they just enjoyed in the health care reform debate.
There are many reasons for conservative excitement over a Supreme Court fight right before the congressional midterm elections.
In general, conservatives seem to care more about Supreme Court picks than liberals do. Conservatives still remember the vicious attacks that defeated Reagan nominee Robert Bork in 1987. And those that nearly stopped Clarence Thomas 14 years later. Liberals—because they were behind these attacks, rather than their victims—do not have these grudges to nurse.
In this particular case, the seat being vacated is a “liberal seat.” And not just any liberal seat, it is the seat of the Court’s leading liberal. Replacing Stevens with this pick is really impossible—any more than Stevens himself could assume the role he now has when first appointed.
The best liberals can hope for is filling the seat with another liberal. But simply picking “a liberal” won’t replace their loss—and confirming a liberal won’t be an easy task. For the left, it won’t be possible for them to simply break even. For the right—fighting over a seat they didn’t control anyway—the worst they can do is break even.
This sets up a great scenario for conservatives. A successful fight could significantly reduce the Court’s liberal wing. That is an energizing assignment. For liberals, they face the possibility that the President could actually go for a moderate—a potentially easier confirmation. That is an enervating prospect from their perspective. Even if a liberal is confirmed, the Court’s liberal wing, absent Stevens, is diminished. Either outcome is a downgrade for liberals—and neither a rousing rallying cry going into November.
The nomination also takes liberals “off-message.” Going into midterm elections during a recession, the only resonating message is jobs. Being forced to defend a Supreme Court nominee, regardless of popularity, still keeps them from talking about the issue voters are following.
And liberals have ground to make up with voters. According to a 4/6-7 Fox News/Opinion Dynamic poll of 900 registered voters (+/-3.3 percent), Republicans led Democrats 43 percent to 39 percent in the generic House ballot. More importantly, 39 percent of Republican voters said they were “extremely interested” in the November elections, versus just 24 percent of Democrats.
Most important of all, the public also seems to be again against them. In the same poll, the question was posed: “When Obama nominates the next Supreme Court Justice, do you want him to nominate someone who is more of a liberal, or someone who is more of a conservative?” “Conservative” beat “liberal” 52 percent to 29 percent. Even 29 percent of Democrats said “conservative.” More troubling for liberals is the fact that 48 percent of Independents did so too—versus just 23 percent who said “liberal.”
It is easy to see the Court appointment replicating health care as an issue. Conservatives were also far more energized than liberals. That has carried over too, leaving the conservative base far more excited about the November elections than liberals are.
A decided majority of the public did not support health care reform either. Of course, it took a year-long debate for the public to get there. Worrisome for liberals now, is that the public appears to have started this debate with a decided preference—almost 2 to 1—for a conservative nominee.
Finally, health care reform took liberals away from the economy for over a year. Rather than talking about jobs when Americans were out of work, or worried about being so, liberals were talking about health care. That made the left look out of touch with average Americans’ concerns.
Just over six months remain between now and November. Already trailing in the polls, liberals do not need to be spending their very limited time on issues that excite their opponents more than they motivate them. They certainly do not need to be expending this time on an issue that is not the public’s priority and it opposes to boot. Yet with a Supreme Court nomination fight thrust on them, this looks exactly like what liberals are going to have. Again.
J.T. Young served in the Department of Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001 -2004 and as a Congressional staff member from 1987-2000.