Politics

Democratic momentum looks to be only a slight drag on GOP wave, new poll finds

Jon Ward Contributor
Font Size:

A Republican operative walked into a D.C. restaurant on Thursday and ran into a Democratic operative.

“I wish the election had been held six weeks ago,” the Republican said. “Things are getting tight.”

The Democrat rolled her eyes. “Yeah, not enough though.”

A new survey out Friday finds that they’re both right. The national survey of 2,251 adults (1,797 of them registered voters and 1,354 of them likely voters) from Oct. 13-18 by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press confirms much of what has been speculated for months now about the election: More voters favor Republican candidates and conservative voters are far more energized and likely to vote than liberal voters.

But in the current environment, 10 days out from election day, each side is trying to project confidence, trying to shake the other party’s confidence, and races are naturally getting closer as more voters engage — a poll confirming the conventional wisdom is news.

That is especially true in that the survey shows that Democrats are indeed gaining momentum, but puts that fact in context. In essence, the poll says, the efforts of President Obama and Democrats to energize their own base have served to erect a modest undertow that will mitigate the size of the Republican wave that is in the process of crashing on shore.

But the wave is still coming.

“The new survey does show some signs of the Democrats awakening,” an overview states. “However, Republican engagement continues at record levels, dwarfing even improved Democratic showing on these indicators.”

Among registered voters, 46 percent favor the Republican candidate, compared to 42 percent who favor the Democrat. That gap gets even bigger among likely voters: Republicans have a 50 percent to 40 percent edge there.

GOP advantages have grown in both those categories since September. In early September, Pew found that Democrats had a 47 to 44 edge among registered voters, while Republicans were up 50 to 43 among likely voters.

A Pew summary of the survey said that the GOP advantage is being driven by intense enthusiasm among voters who agree with or support the Tea Party, and by a move among independents away from President Obama and toward the conservative party.

Likely independent voters favor Republican candidates 49 to 30 percent, whereas when Democrats gained control of the House and Senate independents had a seven-point edge among likely independent voters.

Surprisingly, the survey shows that Republicans have done just as well as mobilizing voters as have Democrats, equalizing what has traditionally been a Democratic advantage thanks to labor unions. Republicans may also be doing just as well in early voting as Democrats.

E-mail Jon Ward and follow him on Twitter