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TheDC sports columnist Andy Hayes: Week 11 NFL picks

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Overall record now at 76-68. 8-6 last week.

  • Chic @ Mia (-1.5). Until this past weekend, Chad Pennington spent all of the 2010 season as the back-up to starter QB Chad Henne. Pennington’s salary as a back-up QB is $2.5 million. Pennington ended up starting last week because of Henne’s weak recent performances. All Pennington had to do was play one play as the starter in order to receive a $200,000 bonus. Pennington played 2 plays, got hurt, was taken out of the game and then put on IR. Not counting his “contributions in practice” because they don’t count, Chad Pennington will pocket $2.7 million for 2 live NFL plays this year. Nice. Miami 20, Chic 17.
  • Balt @ Car (+10.5). Carolina’s top 2 QBs are out (though neither were good to begin with) and now the top 3 RBs are out as well. Their only good defensive player is also out (Jon Beason). Wow – all this for a team that was already bad to begin with. The NFL is cruel sometimes. Balt 30, Car 17.
  • Buff @ Cincy (-5.5). Shocking that Cincy was once 2-1 this year – hey? Buff 23, Cincy 20.
  • Det @ Dal (-6.5). What last week’s road victory over the very hot NYG did more than anything, is highlight Wade Phillips’ massive incompetence as a head coach. Dal 27, Det 20.
  • Cleve @ Jax (-2.5). The Cleve has lost a number of close games this year – and most all of their games were decided in the last few minutes. And recently, they have beaten some seriously good teams in NE and NO – and they would have beaten the Jets were it not for an untimely fumble in OT last week. Cleve is a quality 3-6 team. Cleve 24, Jax 19.
  • Ariz @ KC (-7.5). What exactly did Todd Haley yell at Josh McDaniels while not shaking his hand after last week’s game? The former golf pro was apparently still fuming about a round of golf with McDaniels this summer in which McDaniels used a “foot wedge” 3 times:  “you play the ball where it lies, there is no such thing as winter rules in Arizona!” KC 28, AZ 20.
  • GB @ MN (+2.5). So tired of Favre floating out injury news every week just to give himself a never-ending excuse for poor play. Has any player so revered in a sport for so long ever had such a fragile ego? I can imagine his conversations with publicists/agent Bus Cook immediately following a poor game and in anticipation of a tough upcoming game  – “ugh, 3 picks yesterday and a brutal opponent coming up this week…get it out there now, tell everyone I’m going to talk with Dr. James Andrews about something…” The Vikes may actually make this a good game Sunday. They will desperately want to win this game and I came close to picking them to win outright. However, the Pack’s bye week and extra time to prepare will be the difference. Green Bay 31, MN 24.
  • Hou @ NYJ (-6.5). Tip of the hat to Mark Sanchez who continues to find a way to win. He’s not fazed by late game pressure which is unusual for such a young QB. While I find a Jets’ loss improbable this week, I would like to see it happen so that ESPN’s Mike Greenberg and Colin Cowherd are forced to back off their Jets-are-the-best-team ever campaign. Greenberg is a Jets’ fan (and generally very good at what he does), so I can forgive him. But Cowherd is a ratings fan who shamelessly rallies behind east coast/larger market teams.  NYJ 27, Hou 17.
  • Pitt @ Oak (-7.5). Often drunk and alarmingly thin-skinned, Pitt kicker Jeff Reed was cut this past week after spending 9 years in Pitt. After solid campaigns in 2008 and 2009, he was given the franchise tag by Pitt heading into this year – at a salary of $2.8 million. For this guaranteed salary of $2.8 million, Reed played half of the season and converted 15 of 22 (68%) field goals. Whether he’s picked up by someone else or not, he keeps the full salary. Nice. That’s the equivalent of me showing up for work 6 out of the 12 months in a year and successfully completing just 2/3 of the work assigned when there – yet keeping my full salary. And keep in mind, when we’re talking about “work”, he’s a FG kicker. Pitt 30, Oak 17.
  • Wash @ Tenn (-6.5). Considering his disdain for playing in Wash (as evidenced clearly by his ridiculous give-up play last week), I wouldn’t be surprised if Albert Haynesworth sneaks into the Tenn locker room before Sunday’s game, comes out with a Titans jersey on and plays for his former team. And then, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wash just lets this all play out, not saying a word, so they don’t have to deal with the guy anymore. (By the way, how refreshing was it to hear Jeff Fisher publicly admit that it was a huge mistake to put LeGarrette Blount on the practice squad and then eventually lose him to TB? We’re so programmed to expect either total non-statements or total lies from coaches nowadays. Thanks for the truth Jeff.) Tenn 30, Wash 20.
  • Sea @ NO (-11.5). No idea which Seattle team will show up this week. I’ve begin to think that Pete Carroll is at the root of Seattle’s massive inconsistency issue. With Carroll’s cup-is-always-totally-full-hooray! approach, I think it’s difficult for players to respond with matching enthusiasm week in and week out. Eventually, this style may catch on a bit more as players adapt, but up until now, I think players may still be figuring out how to deal with Carroll’s unharnessed giddiness. The Saints coming off a bye week will be the difference. NO 34, Sea 20.
  • TB @ SF (-3.5). How absolutely ridiculous was it for Mike Singletary to not state immediately following last week’s dramatic comeback victory led by Troy Smith, that Troy Smith would be the starter going forward? It was just a weak, weak power play by Singletary, trying to remind folks who the boss is. Unfortunately for him, it unwittingly reminded people of exactly who the boss is.  SF 30, TB 20.
  • Atl @ StL (+2.5). Roddy White is like a foreign diplomat – he has total immunity to do whatever he wants with complete disregard for the rules. White himself admitted to shoving the Balt DB last week on his game-winning TD – and most of us watching saw the same thing. But that blatant foul wasn’t even the most egregious of the night – a few plays before that on the same drive, he threw a DB to the ground before catching a critical pass, moving the chains. Watching that series brought back nightmares for me as a Packer fan from when Michael Irvin used to tackle our CBs, punch our LBs in the stomach, kick our safeties in the groin – then calmly catch important TD passes. White is a good player yes, but after last week’s public admission of cheating, I wonder if the officials might not let him get away with it anymore. Michael Turner will be the story in this game. Atl 26, StL 17.
  • Indy @ NE (-3.5). True to form last week, with their star distribution program operating at full capacity, NE featured the unknown and previously, barely used Rob Gronkowski. Yeah, Welker and Green-Ellis were involved some. But every week since Bill Belichick took over in NE, the Pats offensive philosophy has been to simply feature a different player. And it works beautifully. Defenses never know which guys to key on. Danny Woodhead has been noticeably quiet the last few weeks, so I’m guessing he’s due to get back into the mix this week. NE 27, Indy 24.
  • NYG @ Phil (-2.5). Vick was unreal last week. So smart of Andy Reid to spread the WRs out like he does to create a huge space in the middle for Vick to roam. As dominant and MVP-like as Vick has been so far though, his 0 interceptions and 0 fumbles will soon begin to work against him. That simply can’t continue and my guess is that it will be the Giants’ crafty D in a huge divisional game, led by Osi Umenyiora who himself has forced 7 fumbles this year, that will get Vick to come up short of flawless. Not sure it will be enough to win, but it will be enough to keep this a good game. Phil 24, NYG 21.
  • Den @ SD (-9.5). Just to prove how good Phillip Rivers is this year, I’ve heard Norv Turner has brought in 6 fat, beer-drinking Charger fans to suit up this week and catch passes from Rivers. Turner said he still expects at least 400 yards passing and 6 TDs. If Rivers and Vick can keep up their amazing play, this could be one of the most compelling MVP races in a long time in the NFL. (9.5 points is too much though when playing a team that just scored 49 points. This will be a shoot-out.) SD 41, Den 36.
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