As you may have seen, the IMF has “set a date for the moment when the ‘Age of America’ will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.”
As Reagan might say, “I utterly reject that view.”
China’s large population means that if they can attain a GDP-per-capita of 1/4 American levels, they would technically be the world’s largest economy. As China industrializes, that is possible, at least for a time.
But having a population just 25 percent as rich as America is hardly how one might define winning the future. What is more, this does not account for the military advantage America will still possess, nor the cultural values America will continue to export.
America will continue to be the dominant force in the world because freedom fosters creativity and innovation. It fosters risk. It attracts the best minds from around the world, via immigration. Conversely, Communism and authoritarianism stifle creativity and innovation. China is very good at copying, but not at innovating.
China will not invent the future. They will not invent tomorrow’s tools, technology, toys or weapons. America will.
What is more, China is about to experience a demographic time bomb.
China’s “one-child” policy has led to a future where one young person will have to support three or four old people. While China can look forward to an aging population, America (thanks in large part to immigration) will have a much younger population. So no, the “Age of America” isn’t in over.
We should, of course, take China seriously. My hope is this news will spur Americans to get serious about the budget. But let not your hearts be troubled. For America, there is still a bright dawn ahead…