It’s the unemployment rate, stupid?

Matt K. Lewis Senior Contributor

Via ABC’s The Note, Former Bush and McCain aide Matt McDonald sums up by Barack Obama may have a tough time being re-elected:

“Since 1960, the unemployment rate has been above 7 percent during four elections: 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1992. In three of these 4 elections, the incumbent party lost.  Only in 1984 did Reagan win with 7.2 percent unemployment, which was in the context of a 1.3 percentage point drop in unemployment during the year prior to the election.”

This is why Republicans have a real shot (no matter who wins the nomination) …