Majority of Americans bet against Obama’s re-election

Alexis Levinson Political Reporter
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A majority of Americans expect that President Barack Obama will not be re-elected, according to an ABC/Washington Post poll released Monday.

The poll found that 55 percent of Americans expect the Republican candidate to win the election in 2012, while just 37 percent expect Obama to be re-elected.

Democrats are not as optimistic about their chances as Republicans are. 58 percent say they expect Obama to be re-elected, while 33 percent say they expect the Republican to win. Republicans, on the other hand, are confident: 83 percent say they expect their candidate to win the day, while just 13 percent expect Obama to be re-elected.

Independents lean more toward the Republican candidate, with 54 percent saying the GOP will take the presidency, and 36 percent saying Obama will hold onto it.

Political futures trading website Intrade evidences a similar loss in confidence in Obama’s re-election prospects. Price of shares that Obama will be re-elected bottomed out in the final days of September, dropping to $4.65, and at the moment, are at $4.70. This is the bottom of a steady decline. Odds of his re-election hovered above 60 percent, peaking at 70 percent following the capture of Osama Bin Laden. But beginning in June odds steadily declined.

The problem, ABC News points out, is that such prophecies can be self-fulfilling “because expectations can fuel voter enthusiasm,” and if Obama supporters do not expect him to win, they may not turn up at the polls. (RELATED: Obama: Americans ‘not better off’ than they were four years ago)

The poll is based on phone interviews with 1,002 adult Americans from September 29 through October 2. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, and was conducted by Langer Research Associates.

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