On paper, Rick Santorum looks as deserving as any other Republican presidential contender of a moment in the sun. On the paper that polls are printed on, it is clear he hasn’t had one.
While Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain and now former House Speaker Newt Gingrich have seen their political fortunes rise to fill the much coveted position as the alternative to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination, Santorum has consistently remained among the bottom of the declared candidates. Of the eight candidates who regularly qualify for the primary debates, Santorum is currently tied with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman for dead last, both registering woeful RealClearPolitics polling averages of 2.3 percent.
But at least Huntsman has seen some measure of success in the primary state he has focused on, New Hampshire, where he has experienced a slow but steady climb in the polls. In Iowa, where Santorum has expended much time and effort, the former two-term Pennsylvania senator has seen no noticeable increase in his polling numbers. He is currently averaging 3.8 percent according to RealClearPolitics, placing him just ahead of Huntsman in the state among the regular GOP presidential debating society.
Santorum is a true blue conservative. On social issues, he is staunchly anti-abortion and wants to reinstate “don’t ask, don’t tell.” He opposed the Wall Street bailout, even though he was not in the Senate when it was voted on. He is among the more knowledgeable candidates on foreign policy matters. He is articulate and a strong debater. Yet, he remains overlooked by voters as a serious contender.
It puzzles some political observers and activists.
“It’s a good question,” Stuart Rothenberg, editor of The Rothenberg Political Report, told The Daily Caller. “I’ve thought about it. But I have no idea. Really.”
Tony Perkins, president of the socially conservative Family Research Center, who knows Santorum, told TheDC that he too is baffled.
But Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, says that Santorum’s inability to catch steam stems from his 2006 Senate defeat to Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr.
“From the very beginning, Santorum has been dogged by his landslide defeat for re-election in 2006,” Sabato explained. “There’s no disgrace in losing — but by 18 percentage points when other Republicans in trouble lost by small margins? And there was no scandal to help explain it. The 2006 result undermined any Santorum claim to be able to take Pennsylvania away from the Democrats.”
Sabato says that the “memory” of the loss has hurt Santorum’s ability to fundraise and recruit a strong organization. He also hasn’t been too memorable, Sabato argued.
“He has not been able to shine,” he said. “And it isn’t just that he is given less time than other candidates. There is little memorable about what he says when he has the floor.”
Penny Nance, president of Concerned Women for America, echoed Sabato in part, telling TheDC that Santorum has been hurt by his poor fundraising, which can be explained by his embarrassing 2006 election outcome.
“I think his lag in fundraising has very much hurt him but his ability to engage the voters in retail politics may help him to exceed expectations in Iowa,” she said, noting she considers Santorum “a stalwart conservative” who “would make a very good president.”
His inability to raise funds, she added, may have to do “with his loss of his Senate seat.”
Washington Post conservative blogger Jennifer Rubin, who has written favorably about Santorum, says that she too believes it is “odd” that he isn’t doing better since he seems to check every important box and is “far superior to virtually all of the anti-Romney crowd” in terms of personal integrity, foreign policy expertise, domestic policy positions and “worth ethic.”
Nonetheless, Rubin explained, she has several theories for his inability to rise in the polls.
She thinks conservative media outlets have “done a poor job of vetting the candidates,” giving Santorum “short shrift” while “choosing to defend higher profile figures like Cain in some weird duel with the mainstream media.” She also feels that it has taken Santorum “a while to find a modulated tone and persona that comes across well on TV.” She also agrees that his failure to properly frame his 2006 loss has been problematic.
Finally, Rubin argues that Santorum hasn’t taken on the other anti-Romney candidates aggressively and effectively enough.
“He’s only got [a] couple of debates and if he doesn’t take Gingrich on then, and in interviews and appearances in the final weeks of the campaign it will be hard for him to make up ground,” she proffered.
But Rubin, like the other political observers who TheDC talked to, didn’t think it was over for Santorum quite yet, though most of those who talked to TheDC may be giving him the benefit of the doubt because they have an affinity for the man.
“It’s not over yet,” Perkins said.
“Rick has always been underestimated by the political class,” argued conservative radio host Mark Levin. “He was not expected to win any of his races for the House or Senate in Pennsylvania, yet he won several races against the odds and to the surprise of the so-called experts… If Rick comes in second or third in Iowa, today’s polls and predictions will soon be forgotten, and he would certainly be in the running. “
“If he does exceed expectations [in Iowa] then I think he is back in the game,” Nance said. “It is still early to know how this is all going to pan out.”
Even Sabato thinks Santorum still has a shot given the topsy-turvy nature of the GOP primary thus far.
“After this roller coaster of a nominating campaign, with a half-dozen people getting their turn at frontrunner, no one should rule anything out, “ he said.
“But,” he continued, “in some ways, a strong Santorum finish in Iowa would be one of the biggest surprises yet — and it wouldn’t necessarily mean much for New Hampshire.”