’Tis the season for predictions, prognostications, and wild-eyed speculation regarding the year to come. Every pundit worth his salt wants to crank up the crystal ball in the hopes of getting an “I told you so” moment this time next year. I’m no different, but I wouldn’t touch presidential election predictions with a 10-foot pole right now. What I do like to do, however, is try to predict a few of the names people will learn this year. On December 31, 2010, most people had never heard of Herman Cain, Jack Layton, Kim Jong-un, or Mohamed Bouazizi, but all four became big names in 2011. Not all of those types of stories can be predicted, but a few can. So, here are the five up-and-comers on the world stage that I will be watching this year. Each has a shot at making big news — but will they succeed?
#5: Elio Di Rupo — Prime Minister, Belgium
Elio Di Rupo emerged as prime minister of Belgium this December, ending a year-and-a-half political stalemate that followed Belgium’s June 2010 elections. The country is so divided that it set a world record for time without a government, and now that it has one, Di Rupo finds himself atop a fragile coalition containing all six of the nation’s traditional mainstream parties. The reason for the deadlock was that the largest party elected in the Dutch-speaking Flanders region is the right-wing New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), which wants Flemish independence. On the other hand, the French-speaking Wallonia region gave the most votes to Di Rupo’s Socialist Party, which has almost nothing in common with the N-VA. The two proved unable to work together, eventually forcing Di Rupo to abandon the N-VA altogether and work with almost all of the other parties to form the government he now heads. Now, as the French-speaking leader of a Dutch-majority nation and the first gay man ever to head a modern government, Di Rupo must hold his crazy-quilt government together and prove that Belgium can still function as a single country. If he fails, Belgium could fall apart.
#4: Tsai Ing-wen — Presidential Candidate, Taiwan
Taiwan will hold a presidential election on January 14. While polls are very close, it’s possible that Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party will oust incumbent president Ma Ying-jeou. This would make Tsai the first woman to lead an East Asian nation and put a strain on relations with mainland China. While Ma is ideologically committed to the idea of a united China and building relations with the mainland, Tsai and the DPP are not. The Chinese are not shy about their distaste for the DPP and would be infuriated by a Tsai victory. A win by the DPP would probably be a win for Taiwanese democracy and independence, but it would make the rest of the world jittery about potential confrontations with the mainland.
#3: Nick Clegg — Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Democrats, United Kingdom
I put Clegg on my “five to watch” list two years ago, but for entirely different reasons. Then, I thought he was somebody who could lead his Liberal Democrats to new heights and possibly supplant the Labour Party as Britain’s leading left-wing force. He squandered that chance in the 2010 elections, but emerged as deputy prime minister when David Cameron’s Conservative Party needed the Lib Dems’ help to form a parliamentary majority. Hence, despite his loss, he earned a place in history as the first Lib Dem leader ever to sit in government. However, he makes the list this year as a potential harbinger of doom for the Cameron government, as he finds the members of his liberal, pro-E.U. party at odds with the Eurosceptic actions taken by their Conservative governing partners. Clegg has pledged to keep the Lib Dems in the government until elections in 2015, and his poll numbers are so dismal that it would be political suicide to force an election. However, if he and Cameron drift too far apart on the issue of the European Union, Clegg may face internal pressure to pull the Lib Dems out of the coalition, bring down the Cameron government, and trigger a return to power by the Labour Party.
#2: Marine Le Pen — Presidential Candidate, France
Marine Le Pen is fast becoming one of the most feared women in Europe as she puts a modern, feminine face on the neo-fascist policies of the National Front party. After taking over the party leadership from her father, Jean-Marie, Le Pen has transformed the party’s image and made herself a serious factor in next year’s presidential race. She won’t win, but her anti-Euro message currently has her near 20% in the polls. That means she has a shot at finishing ahead of incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy and advancing to a runoff with Socialist front-runner Francois Hollande. If the Eurozone crisis continues to worsen, it will feed Le Pen and her isolationist message, propelling her to the type of legitimate influence that her father could never achieve.
#1: Alexei Navalny — Blogger and Activist, Russia
There is no true leader behind the growing anti-Putin protests in Russia, but if there is one towering figure, it’s Alexei Navalny. An anti-corruption lawyer, Navalny has amassed 167,000 Twitter followers and has one of the top three blogs on Live Journal. The government recently jailed him for leading a protest march, which seems to have made him even more powerful. Russia’s opposition forces don’t agree with each other on much, other than hating Putin, but one person who galvanizes them all is Navalny. If the protests keep growing, he will become even more powerful — much as Google executive Wael Ghonim did in Egypt — and the government will try even harder to shut him up. He may even challenge Putin for the presidency, at which point all hell would break loose. If you have to pick one person to rise to prominence in 2012, Navalny is your man.
Adam Brickley was the founder of the website “Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President.” He has contributed to Race42012.com, The Weekly Standard’s blog and Conservatives4Palin.com. His personal blog is AdamBrickley.net.