With Fox News, NBC News, the Associated Press and CNN all making late night projections that Texas Rep. Ron Paul would place third in the Iowa caucuses, the first-in-the-nation election event became a two-way race between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
With 99 percent of Iowa counties reporting their totals, Santorum held a razor-thin edge of just four votes — 29,964 to 29,968.
Ron Paul had 26,186 votes for his third-place showing.
As vote totals came in during the evening, the field quickly narrowed. News organizations were fast to report that Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann would finish last among the six candidates who actively campaigned in the Hawkeye State. Fourth and fifth-place finishes for Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, respectively, became near certainties shortly after 9:00 p.m.
Candidates with the most statewide support left nothing to chance Tuesday, barnstorming across Iowa with the fervor of politicians who understood what was at stake. The resulting dead heat between the presumptive-favorite Romney and the perennial also-ran Santorum is just the latest twist in an early political season that has seen no fewer than seven Republicans share “front-runner” status.
A win Tuesday night could solidify Romney’s claim that he is the most electable Republican, the one best-equipped to cross swords and trade blows with President Barack Obama in November.
But a come-from-behind stunner from the Santorum camp might vault Santorum into a rarefied political stratum that he has never before occupied.
Newt Gingrich has already bought ad space in New Hampshire newspapers for full-page attacks on Romney set to debut Wednesday morning. And whether Romney finishes first or second in Iowa, Gingrich — and the rest of what pundits called “the second tier” Tuesday night — may have to sharpen their knives for Santorum as well.
Santorum is poised to emerge from Iowa wearing the mantle of the Romney alternative. That may place him, by definition, in the top tier of contenders who hope to dethrone Mitt Romney in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Romney has what some observers consider an insurmountable lead in New Hampshire, with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman nipping at his heels. (Huntsman declined to participate in Iowa.) South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has already endorsed Romney.
Santorum’s strength is in his appeal to evangelical Christians and other “values voters” who evaluate candidates based on their positions with respect to abortion and other social issues.
This story will be updated as results continue to come in.
David is The Daily Caller’s executive editor. Follow him on Twitter