Mitt Romney’s efforts to prevent a potentially devastating upset in next week’s Michigan primary appear to be bearing fruit.
Rick Santorum has been consistently beating Romney in recent Michigan polls, but the former Pennsylvania senator’s lead seems to have all but disappeared according to a new Public Policy Polling survey. The poll finds Santorum leading Romney by just a 4-point margin, an 11-point drop from earlier this month.
The stakes in Michigan are extremely high for Romney, who until just a few weeks ago looked set to walk away with the Wolverine State as a favorite son candidate. He was born in Detroit, and his father George Romney governed the state for much of the 1960s after a successful tenure as the CEO of American Motors.
All that changed, however, after a resurrected Rick Santorum won the Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado caucuses earlier this month by wide margins. In doing so he became — at least for the moment — the conservative alternative to Romney in the minds GOP primary voters dissatisfied with the former Massachusetts governor.
Should Santorum triumph in Michigan despite limited campaign resources and a series of recent gaffes on the trail, it will prove that he has what it takes to stop Romney’s fearsome and well-financed political machine dead in its tracks. Such a victory would also dispel the notion that Romney is the inevitable nominee and set up a Republican primary race that could easily stretch into the summer months.
Romney and his super PAC are spending an estimated total of nearly $2 million in an attempt to head off Santorum before next Tuesday’s vote, and the PPP poll indicates that effort beginning to work out. (RELATED: Full coverage of the Mitt Romney campaign)
According to Larry Hembroff, a polling expert at Michigan State University, part of the reason Romney appears to be on the rebound is his newfound emphasis on running a positive campaign in the state.
“The immediate campaign he’s been running in Michigan has been focusing on [Romney’] Michigan roots and how much he cares about the auto industry and wanting Michigan to do well,” Hembroff told The Daily Caller. “It’s been a more positive campaign here than some of the media campaigns in other states.”
Hembroff said that by concentrating less on tearing down his opponents and more on his vision for the country, Romney is humanizing himself in a way that resonates with Michigan voters.
“It’s easier to like somebody that’s likeable,” he said. “When somebody’s always on a negative edge, it’s hard to warm up to that. When you run a more positive campaign, it’s easier not to seem like a difficult person.”
Romney’s large war chest and ability to blanket the airwaves has been critical to his success in other hotly contested states. And while his supporters may be using air time to run a more positive campaign in Michigan than they have in the past, that still hasn’t stopped them from attacking Santorum on a regular basis.
Political guru Larry Sabato told TheDC that if PPP is right and Romney’s campaign is re-gaining traction in Michigan, his financial advantages and negative ads are likely the cause.
“If [the poll] is accurate and replicated by other surveys, it means that Romney’s spending edge and negative ads are working on Santorum in Michigan, much as they dispatched a surging Gingrich in Florida,” Sabato said. “The technique tends to work because Santorum can’t match Romney dollar for dollar, or attack for attack — and Santorum is basically a blank slate to lots of voters.”
“It’s easy to write positive or negative things on the slate, and so you look to see which side has superior resources,” he continued.
Santorum still enjoys a modest lead over Romney in the national polls, however, and appears to have momentum behind him. And even if Romney does manage to win Michigan, Sabato notes, his path to the nomination still looks like it will be anything but easy.
“It’s obvious that Romney can’t skate anywhere,” Sabato said. “He has to go all-in to win in each state he wants. Otherwise the natural anybody-but-Romney sentiment in much of the GOP base will take over.”