Politics

Obama bets 2014 campaign on minimum wage increase

Neil Munro White House Correspondent
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President Barack Obama is betting his 2014 campaign on polling data that shows strong public support for a higher minimum wage.

He’s repeatedly pushed the issue in his speeches, and he’s flying into Connecticut Wednesday to tout his proposed increase from $7.25 an hour to $10.10 an hour, while four Democratic governors provide a back-up chorus for him and the TV cameras.

“Anyone who works full time should not have to raise their family in poverty,” Gene Sperling, the outgoing director of the White House’s National Economic Council, told reporters. “The minimum wage today is about what it was, in real terms, about 50 years ago,” he said.

“There’s an overwhelming amount of support all over this country for raising it,” said Maine Democrat Mike Michaud, who joined Sperling in the press event.

But support for the minimum-wage increase is soft, say critics.

Voters turn away from the gift when they’re told about the hidden costs, said Michael Saltsman, research director at the Employment Policies Institute.

“If you ask people what the Democrats ask… people broadly say ‘yes’ to an increase,” Saltsman told TheDC. “But when you ask them about some of the other arguments [such as lost jobs]… it tends to drive down support pretty dramatically.”

His group is already buying ads on Fox News and MSNBC to undermine support for Obama’s push.

But Democrats see the issue as a three-fer that also boosts turnout by women, African-Americans and Latinos.

Women are especially supportive of the proposed raise because they comprise 60 percent of minimum wage workers, Connecticut Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty told the reporters. “When women succeed, America succeeds,” she said.

Obama is also pushing the minimum wage increase partly because it is expected to drive up his own poll numbers. His poll ratings are in the low 40s. That’s a threat to Democrats, because midterm elections are strongly shaped by presidential approval ratings. Obama’s ratings have been pummeled by the stalled economy and the failures of his Obamacare network. So far, polls have not shown damage from the Ukraine crisis.

Obama is slated to give his speech in Hartford at 2.30 pm. He’ll be backed up by four governors — Connecticut’s Dan Malloy, Massachusetts’ Deval Patrick, Rhode Island’s Lincoln Chafee and Vermont’s Peter Shumlin.

After the speech, Obama will attend two election-campaign fundraisers, in Cambridge and Boston.

Polls show that critical slices of the November electorate back the increase.

A December poll of adults by the Wall Street Journal showed 63 percent support for the increase, including 36 percent who “strongly favor” and 27 percent who “somewhat favor” the increase.

A March poll for Washington Post showed that 50 percent of independent adults say they’d be more likely to vote for a candidate who support a higher minimum wage. Only 19 percent said they’d likely vote against the candidate, giving Obama a 31-point advantage among adults. The Washington Post-ABC News poll of 1,002 adults was conducted on March, 2, 2014.

The issue is a “land mine” for the Republicans, said a release from the polling firm, Langer Research Associates. “That gives the Democrats some potential pushback against the GOP’s economic argument,” said the pollster.

That gap more than twice as large as independents’ opposition to candidates who support amnesty, or a “path to citizenship.” Forty-one percent oppose, and only 28 support, legislators who back that policy.

Opponents, however, say public worries about unemployment can trump the push for higher wages.

A February report by the Congressional Budget Office said Obama’s minimum wage could cut employment by 500,000, even as it boost swage for 16.5 million people.

A December poll conducted by ORC International for Saltsman’s group showed that public support dropped from 72 percent to the mid-thirties once voters are told that wage-increase will spur automation and reduce teen employment.

Initially, support for a minimum wage reached 91 percent among African-Americans, 87 percent among Hispanics and 75 percent among women, according to the ORC poll.

But it fell to 57 percent support among African Americans, 43 support among Hispanics and 42 percent support among women, when the respondents were asked: “If research showed that a higher minimum wage would force businesses to replace employees with automated, self-service alternatives like touch screen ordering at a restaurant or self-serve grocery store check-outs, would you support raising the minimum wage?”

Similarly, support fell to 71 percent among blacks, 65 percent among Hispanics and 51 percent among women when they were asked “if research showed that a higher minimum wage would make it more difficult for young minority teenagers to find work, would you support raising the minimum wage?”

“If Democrats think they can talk about a higher minimum wage in a [political] vacuum… they’re fooling themselves,” Saltsman said.

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