Nate Silver, the statistician who predicts sports and politics with surprising accuracy, released an interactive blog Monday saying that Louisville, Florida and Arizona have the best shot at winning the NCAA tournament.
Kansas, Virginia, Michigan State and Duke all have a shot as well, according to Silver’s model.
Silver’s website has an interactive bracket as well as a table. He explained that he compiled the ratings of Ken Pomeroy, Jeff Sagarin, Sonny Moore, Joel Sokol and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. He then took those combined ratings and adjusted for injuries or player suspensions and travel distance.
He admitted in the explanation of his findings that it is not an exact science. There aren’t clear favorites this year and scheduling, and match-ups always create unknown factors.
“All this ass-covering aside, we still think we can help you perform reasonably well in your office pool.”
Silver correctly predicted the 2012 presidential race in every state. He only missed one state in the 2008 race.