Republicans will win back the Senate this year by a “sizable” margin, with at least seven seats, says political analyst Stu Rothenberg.
“Given the president’s standing, the public’s disappointment with the direction of the country, the makeup of the midterm electorate and the ’14 Senate map, I expect a strong breeze at the back of the GOP this year,” Rothenberg, editor of political newsletter The Rothenberg Report, wrote in a Roll Call column Monday.
“I’ve witnessed 17 general elections from my perch in D.C., including eight midterms,” he added, “and I sometimes develop a sense of where the cycle is going before survey data lead me there.”
Current Roll Call and Rothenberg ratings suggest a Republican takeover is somewhat likely, but definitely not assured. But because of President Obama’s low approval rating and the realities of midterm elections, Rothenberg said he’s expecting “a substantial Republican Senate wave in November.”
“The combination of an unpopular president and a midterm election (indeed, a second midterm) can produce disastrous results for the president’s party,” he added, and said “the signs are ominous for Democrats.”
He pointed to several close and crucial races, where Democratic senators, such as Alaskan Sen. Mark Begich, are fighting to hold onto seats they won in a “good” election year for Democrats. Rothenberg believes several, if not all, of those senators will lose to Republicans, “even with all the huffing and puffing from journalists over how brilliant their campaigns have been and how weak the GOP challengers are.”
“Right now, this cycle looks much like 2010, when Democrats with reasonable profiles got crushed in Republican-leaning and swing states,” he added.