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Global Warming ‘Pause’ Extends Nearly 18 And A Half Years

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Michael Bastasch DCNF Managing Editor
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Satellite temperature readings show there has been no warming trend for nearly 18 and one-half years, meaning there has been no statistically significant warming since the late 1990s.

Two satellite datasets show that warming has been more moderate than predicted by the United Nations and most climate scientists. The Remote Sensing Systems satellite dataset shows there has been a warming trend of only 0.01 degrees Celsius per century since December 1996.

RSS shows the least amount of warming of the two main satellite temperature datasets, the other dataset is run by scientists at the University Of Alabama in Huntsville. Taken together, both datasets shows a warming trend of just 0.35 degrees Celsius (or 1.37 degrees per century) since 1990 — about half of what was initially predicted by the United Nations.

“The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 220 months from December 1996 to March 2014 – more than half the 435-month satellite record,” says Christopher Monckton, an English lord and noted global warming skeptic. Monckton has been researching and tracking global warming data for years.

“The global warming trend since 1900 is equivalent to 0.8 Cº per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us,” Monckton says.

Satellites measure the lowest reaches of the Earth’s atmosphere and that data is formulated into temperature readings. Most government climate agencies, however, rely on land and sea surface temperature readings to come up with their global climate measures. While both measures have their setbacks, they both show that warming a has been much more moderate than predicted.

A new study by Duke University researchers found that the world has not warmed as fast as previously predicted. Duke scientists found that “natural variability” has dominated the temperature record, causing observed changes in the temperature record from year to year.

Researchers reconstructed a 1,000-year temperature record and “found that climate models largely get the ‘big picture’ right but seem to underestimate the magnitude of natural decade-to-decade climate wiggles,” said Patrick T. Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University.

“Our model shows these wiggles can be big enough that they could have accounted for a reasonable portion of the accelerated warming we experienced from 1975 to 2000, as well as the reduced rate in warming that occurred from 2002 to 2013,” Brown said.

What does all this mean? Brown said it means that predictions of dire global warming are likely overblown and that a “middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now.”

“Statistically, it’s pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming, like the one we saw at the start of this century, would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe [UN] projections,” Brown said. “Hiatus periods of 11 years or longer are more likely to occur under a middle-of-the-road scenario.”

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