In a few days, on September 27, Catalans will head to the polls for their third regional election in just five years. But this this is no ordinary election. Instead, it is being promoted as a vote on whether Catalonia should should secede from Spain.
After decades of struggles between Madrid and Barcelona, the Catalan pro-independence camp is set for another round of legal and political clashes with Spain’s conservative majority. Passions are running high on both sides of the debate, but little is clear about what will happen if there is a successful vote.
After many previous attempts at reaching independence, or at least increased autonomy, Catalan politicians have decided to go all in, and are not pretending otherwise. “This election has nothing to do with left or right,” declared Paul Romeva, the leading candidate of the pro-independence alliance Together For Yes, “it has to do with the right to decide on independence.”
Should his camp win, Romeva has promised to launch an 18-month roadmap to independence, starting with the creation of proper Catalan state institutions, and ending with a unilateral declaration of independence from Spain. But what would be the benefits of independence?
If you ask Madrid, the answer is clear. For decades, and especially around election time, the capital’s conservative leadership has stressed the drastic consequences of Catalan independence. This has ranged from exclusion from the European Union and expulsion from the Eurozone, to massive trade losses. Spanish government officials have even warned of military intervention and judicial consequences for Catalan leaders.
Some negative consequences may be inevitable — for both Catalonia and Spain — but the true prospects of independence are far less black and white than Madrid wants the Catalans to believe.
Catalonia would most likely have to leave the European Union — there is no clear precedent, but most interpretations suggest this would be the case, especially if Spain follows through on its threat to veto Catalonia’s membership. Yet there is hope for Catalonia. Not only is there more to the EU than full membership, but there is also the union’s strong tendency towards pragmatism, and a history of pulling member states into line when necessary.
Accession to the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) does not require the unanimous approval of member states, but can be granted through a qualified majority: something which Catalonia could easily achieve. The region is an important trade and transportation hub that many EU states would hate to exclude. Furthermore, while Catalonia would have to leave the Eurozone, no one could restrict them from keeping the Euro as an official currency if they chose — a position currently taken by Kosovo and Montenegro as well.
And since independence would not be declared until 18 months after the elections, there would be plenty of time for parties to reach an acceptable compromise. This might not include full EU membership, but it could at least solve practical problems concerning trade and free movement of people. With the EU having a long-standing tradition of finding practical solutions, one can never know what they might come up with.
Catalonia has its bargaining chips. With Spain’s monstrous debt, losing a region worth nearly one-fifth of the country’s GDP would be tough on its own. But it would be devastating for Madrid if Catalonia, as threatened by its President Mas, refuses to assume its share of the federal Spanish debt post-independence. This would make Catalonia the country with the lowest debt to GDP ratio in Europe, but Spain would struggle to cope, meaning that it would probably force them to the negotiation table.
An independent Catalonia must not be underestimated. It is already the economic powerhouse of the Iberian Peninsula, and a successful reorientation towards new markets seems more likely than a quick Spanish recovery from its loss.
With high stakes on both sides, it rests with the Catalan voters to decide their fate. If the yes campaign reaches a clear majority, the pro-independence camp will interpret this as a public mandate to realize Catalan independence. How far Spain will go to prevent this remains to be seen, but they are sure to make it as different for Catalonia as possible. If the yes campaign fails to win a majority, Catalonia will continue its protracted struggle with Madrid. At least until the next elections.
Leopold Traugott is the co-founder and director of Campus Europe, and an Advocate at Young Voices.