John Boehner doesn’t have to resign in ignominy. He probably will, but he doesn’t have to.
In historic terms, Speaker Boehner is in stiff competition with Secretary Hillary Clinton as to who could accomplish the least during their respective tenures in powerful federal offices. The Speaker’s friends and most sympathetic critics are saying that his job wasn’t easy, that the political climate was turbulent, that his post is thankless, but few, if any, argue that he has been an effective leader. Presently, Boehner is unloved, un-feared, much reviled, and on a trajectory to be forgotten quickly.
But amazingly, even at this late hour, John Boehner has an opportunity to turn it all around, to stand up for his convictions, unite his party, make history and leave the Speaker’s office as a hero. All he has to do is force a government shutdown.
In the past, government shutdowns have hurt the GOP and accomplished little. In 1995 and 2014, Republicans, apoplectic over spending, shut down the government, watched their poll numbers decrease – a little in 2014, a lot in 1995 – and then reopened the government without much to show for their spent political capital. The problem with those shutdowns was a lack of an achievable goal. In each instance, the GOP wanted their Democratic president to spend less. But, in political warfare, that’s not much of a rallying cry. Spending is what the government does. The American people expect the government to spend money. The debate was about the degree of spending. So while the American people got annoyed with the shutdowns, all Clinton and Obama had to do was blame the GOP and out-wait Congress.
Today’s battle is different.
The country may be split on the issue of abortion, but that’s mostly because abortion is not often discussed, let alone examined. Many casually pro-choice Americans consider the issue a matter of freedom. They’re not particularly passionate about abortion, and it’s easy for them to dismiss it because most Americans live their entire lives without meaningful, personal consequence from it.
The Center for Medical Progress’s investigations have rightly horrified pro-lifers from coast-to-coast, but they’ve also put more national focus than at any time since the procedure was legalized in 1973 on the particulars of abortion. And wherever Americans stand on the issue, they’re universally uncomfortable with those particulars.
Planned Parenthood is not popular. Planned Parenthood is not a vital function of government. Many pro-choice Democrats don’t want federal dollars used to pay for abortions. Unlike 1995 and 2014, the GOP has an achievable goal. Refusing to fund the government until President Obama agrees to defund Planned Parenthood will, ultimately, put all of the political pressure on the White House.
If Boehner shuts down the government, he will be quickly attacked by the president and the media. The president will try to place the blame for the shutdown on the GOP, but it won’t work for long. All John Boehner has to say is, “Mr. President, cut funding for Planned Parenthood.”
Every Republican in Congress, every Republican governor, every Republican in the country will be instantly in lockstep with Boehner. While previous shutdowns were about a negotiable degree of spending, this one will be a binary moral choice. Republicans will remain resolute. This is perhaps the one issue with which the entire party will collectively say, “No more.” It’s a game of chicken that Republicans will enjoy playing.
The shutdown doesn’t effect abortion rights. It will simply question the public good of sending taxpayer dollars to a particular abortion provider.
And for once, the debate in the media will play to both Republican and pro-lifers’ advantage by necessarily focusing on the grisly procedures. Every time a GOP congressman or senator is questioned by a reporter about the shutdown, he can point to the ghastly CMP videos and say, “That’s unacceptable.” As the media spotlight and the nation’s focus fall on the explicit machinations of abortion, Planned Parenthood will become less and less sympathetic.
How many weeks and months can Obama allow the government to be shut down for his feverish defense of abortion funding?
For the last seven years, the left has incessantly called the Republican party intransigent. This is a moment for exultant intransigence.
At this moment, Republican voters are fractious, frustrated and furious with the GOP establishment. But at the core of that antipathy is a lot of energy itching to be harnessed. Speaker Boehner has one last opportunity to lead, to fight, to adhere to a moral principle he says he holds dear. Just before an election year, he could unite his party and leave office as its champion.
Here’s to hope.