Nationally syndicated talk show host Steve Deace said Thursday that if the Iowa caucuses were held today, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would win, even though businessman Donald Trump currently outpolls both candidates.
The reason: Carson and Cruz have superior on-the-ground organizations.
“I don’t believe almost any of these polls,” Deace said on “MSNBC News Nation.” “The record of polling in Iowa is a joke.”
Deace noted that pollsters have warned the Republican National Committee against trusting their results to determine debate placement, and that Gallup will stop polling the 2016 primaries “because they don’t trust their own methodology.”
“I’ll just tell you what I see on the ground,” Deace said. “If the caucuses were today, Bernie Sanders would beat Hillary Clinton. And I don’t think it would be close. Meaning I think he’d beat her by outside of three or four points.”
“If the caucuses were today, Ben Carson or Ted Cruz would win, because they by far have the strongest organizations,” he continued. “I think it’s possible that Trump could finish in the top three, but organizationally, he is not as strong as Cruz and Carson. And as we know from Iowa, organization is what wins here.”
According to the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll in Iowa, Donald Trump is leading Ben Carson 24 percent to 19 percent while Ted Cruz has 6 percent. Hillary Clinton is currently leading Bernie Sanders 47 percent to 36 percent.