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Syrian Army Charges Toward The ISIS Capital

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Russ Read Pentagon/Foreign Policy Reporter
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A Syrian army group is moving on the ISIS capital of Raqqa in Syria in a bid to drive a decisive blow to the terrorist group.

The once dilapidated Syrian army, under President Bashar al-Assad, has been able to renew its efforts in the fight against ISIS thanks in no small part to increased support from Assad’s allies in Russia and Iran. IHS Jane’s Defense Review released a report on Sunday after witnessing Syrian soldiers posting several pictures on social media while operating near the border of Hama and Raqqa provinces.

“It is an indication of the direction of coming operations toward Raqqa. In general, the Raqqa front is open … starting in the direction of the Tabqa area,” said a Syrian military source to Reuters.

According to a report by pro-Syrian government outlet Al-Masdar news, Russian air strikes have been softening up targets in and around Raqqa in preparation for an advance by the Syrian army 555th brigade from the 4th Mechanized division and several other allied paramilitary organizations.

“The regime is not likely to be able to take Raqqa on its own because it does not have that many deployable forces, particularly while it is still beseiging Aleppo,” said Dr. Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, to the Daily Caller News Foundation, “Syrian Arab Army forces are fully integrated with IRGC “advisers,” Iraqi Shia militias, and Lebanese Hezbollah forces, and rely on Russian air support to advance.”

Al-Assad’s forces have been bolstered in recent months with help from their allies abroad. The air strike campaign Russian forces have been conducting since November of last year is poised to create a turning point in the war in favor of Al-Assad. The indiscriminate bombing has relieved pressure on Syrian forces who were for most of the war fighting rebel opposition, ISIS and various other terrorist organization such as the al-Qaida-linked Nusra front.

The collapse of the Syrian government was expected as recently as last June, when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said al-Assad would fall “at any moment.” Indeed, al-Sisi’s assertion was shared by many who witnessed the seemingly unstoppable ISIS juggernaut take swaths of territory across Syria while rebels backed by the U.S. made progress in securing key areas last year.

Russian intervention beginning around last October was the Syrian government’s saving grace, with noticeable gains made by al-Assad’s forces shortly after Russian bombing began. Since the new year, al-Assad’s forces have kept gaining significant momentum. A key victory came in late January when they were able to take the town of Sheikh Maskin in the southern Daraa province, a key rebel foothold which was used to supply rebel factions. Shortly after the taking of the town, peace talks mediated by the United Nations between the opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC) and the Syrian government imploded.

Kagan believes that al-Assad’s land gains will be temporary, and could actually lead to longer term further problems down the road.

“Syrian gains against ISIS therefore are likely to generate fear and resentment among the Sunni Arab populations the regime claims to be ‘liberating’,” said Kagan, “The regime’s current strategy is to crush all the Sunni opposition and re-establish Assad’s brutal minoritarian dictatorship. Whatever temporary successes that approach might achieve, it will create conditions for the survival and reconstitution of ISIS and al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al Nusra [Nusra Front], and is not, therefore, an acceptable basis on which to build American policy.”

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