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The thirteen primaries and caucuses being decided on March 1 will have a huge impact on the Democratic race for the presidential nomination. With over 800 delegates at stake, if Hillary Clinton can pull off the the leads she has in the polls, the former first lady is sure to have the nomination wrapped up.
Voters in these states and territories will have a say in which candidate 878 delegates end up supporting. Another 142 or so super-delegates are free to support who they wish, and Hillary has earned the pledges of 92 of them already.
Currently the delegate count in the Democratic primary is 519 for Clinton, 86 for Sanders. The total, without the superdelegates, amounts to Clinton with 91 delegates, Sanders with 65 delegates. (RELATED: Poli Sci Prof: Sanders’ Nomination Would Be ‘Herculean Task’)
The Democrat primaries and caucuses have their delegates awarded proportionally — if the vote is split 50-50, so will the delegates.
Alabama Democratic Primary
There are 53 delegates at stake in the Yellowhammer State, and there is currently no polling available for it. However the state’s heavy black population should play to Clinton’s advantage. Exit polls showed Hillary won over 80 percent of the black vote in South Carolina.
American Samoa Democratic Caucus
There are only six delegates available in this overseas territory, Clinton won here during her 2008 bid.
Arkansas Democrat Primary
This state should be a strong-hold for the state’s former first lady, there are 32 delegates at stake. The RealClearPolitics average of polling in the state has Clinton leading by nearly 30 percent. Sanders could surprise in Arkansas though due to its large blue-collar white populace.
Colorado Democratic Caucus
Sanders is banking on a win in Colorado, spending more than double than Hillary on television ads here. There are 66 delegates at stake, and the minority voters in the state are more Hispanic than black, which should play to Sanders’ benefit. There has been not much polling in the state, the last one being in November, making it not too valuable for prognostications.
Democrats Abroad Democratic Primary
Yes, this is a real thing, and there are 13 delegates at stake. This primary is for Democrats living outside the United States and starts on March 1, but in fact voting continues till March 8. There is not much polling available on Democrats living throughout the world, but maybe we can assume the ones living in Sanders’ beloved nations of Denmark and Sweden will be voting for the Vermont senator.
Georgia Democratic Primary
Georgia is demographically similar to South Carolina and Alabama, and Clinton should expect to win here. There are 102 delegates at stake, and the RCP average has Hillary in the lead by over 30 percentage points.
Massachusetts Democratic Primary
Sen. Sanders should have a good shot to compete in this New England state. Polling has the two candidates relatively tied, and both Hillary and Sanders are pouring money for ads in the Bay State. Both of them will be holding events in the state Monday leading into the primary, Clinton’s in Springfield and Sanders’ in Milton. There are 91 delegates at stake.
Minnesota Democratic caucus
Sanders has been pouring money into advertisements into Minnesota and its largely white population should benefit the Vermont senator. There are 77 delegates at stake.
Oklahoma Democratic Primary
Bernie Sanders has been making a strong push in this state, there are 38 delegates at stake. He gave a speech Sunday in front of 6,000 supporters, and said, “On Tuesday, Oklahoma can play a very important role in moving this country forward to a political revolution. Let’s do it.” It is worth noting Clinton won the state in 2008, and polls currently have her ahead by 9 points. While Hillary has been making a strong identity politics push, the heavily white electorate in Oklahoma might not find it as appealing as South Carolinians did.
Tennessee Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton has spent nearly $200,000 on advertisements in Tennessee, and Sanders has spent none. This should tell you about who is favored to win in the state, there are 67 delegates at stake in the Volunteer State. The most recent poll has Clinton leading Sanders 60 percent to 34 percent.
Texas Democratic Primary
There are 222 delegates at stake in this all-important primary. The heavily Hispanic electorate in the Lone Star State (32 percent) will test Sanders’ assertion that he won the Latino vote in Nevada. The RCP average of polls has Hillary ahead by nearly 30 percentage points.
Vermont Democratic Primary
This is Sen. Sanders’ home state so a win here is expected. There are 16 delegates at stake and if Clinton doesn’t reach 15 percent of the vote, then it becomes winner-take-all.
Virginia Democratic Primary
There are 95 delegates in the Old Dominion, and Clinton is favored to do strongly here. There is a large amount of non-white voters here, which should play to Hillary’s advantage. She should do strongly in areas such as Hampton Roads, while Sanders will attempt to compete in the whiter areas of Northern Virginia. The most recent poll has Hillary in the lead by 20 percentage points.