The Economist magazine has rated a Donald Trump presidency as a top 10 global risk, on the same level as Islamic terrorism.
The list of global risks came from the magazine’s “Global Forecasting Service.” In a post published Thursday, the group bemoans Trump’s protectionist policies: “he has been exceptionally hostile towards free trade, including notably NAFTA, and has repeatedly labelled China as a ‘currency manipulator.'”
“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war — and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016,” The Economist wrote.
The 10 threats identified by the magazine are assigned “risk indicators” that range from four to 20. At four is “a collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock,” the highest risk is “China experiences a hard landing.”
Trump moving into the White House in January received a “risk indicator” of 12, the same rating as “the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabiliz[ing] the global economy.”
The magazine doesn’t think Trump is likely to defeat Hillary Clinton in the fall, unless there’s a terror strike in the U.S.
“Although we do not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn,” wrote The Economist.