The refugee crisis in Europe has become a story few Americans are paying much attention to these days. Trump, Hillary, The March Madness, Kardashians and a myriad of other interests are all convenient distractions from the misfortunes of the rest of the world. Yet nothing has greater possibility to impact us here in the U.S. in the near future than the European refugee crisis. Here’s why.
The Brussels attack on Tuesday together with the capture last week in Belgium of the mastermind of last November’s Paris terrorist attacks are stark reminders of the terrorist infiltration of Europe coming with the refugee wave. Now, British authorities are giving dire warning to threats of imminent “enormous and spectacular” terrorist attacks by ISIS within the UK. As ISIS has proclaimed, the U.S. is in their sights as well.
In the mix are radical, aggressive Islamists hell-bent on attacking the West. At the center of the human throng from the Greek islands north to Europe is Macedonia, a small Balkan nation, which has yet to be admitted to NATO or the EU primarily because of Greece’s objection to the country’s name. Just last year over 700,000 asylum seekers passed through Macedonia – incredible for a nation of 2 million. Among those, Macedonia captured 9,000 forged or stolen passports.
Now, like its Balkan neighbors, Macedonia has closed its borders to the refugee onslaught. It does so with minimal resources, having in essence been abandoned by both NATO and the EU and therefore forced to deal with the refugees on its own. Not an easy task for a small country at the virtual center of the gateway to central Europe and beyond. And for a good reason: two of the Paris attackers came through Macedonia.
Macedonia shows promise, with low tax rates and improvements in health and social policies under the leadership of Nikola Gruevski who was Prime Minister over a decade, until he resigned in January. The country moved up from 105th place to 64th last year on the respected Transparency International perception of corruption index (the biggest jump any country ever had and ahead of many EU and NATO member countries).
However, Macedonia’s difficulties in handling refugees, despite their best efforts, are overtaken by divisive internal politics, with four main parties vying for leadership.
The intrigue is straight out of The House of Cards. Privately recorded and doctored tapes were leaked last year by the opposition post-communist Social Democrats led by Zoran Zaev. To resolve the ensuing crisis, the parties agreed that Gruevski would resign 100 days before elections. He kept his promise, but Zaev is still avoiding elections he will likely loose and has demanded a poll postponement till June 5th. Even after the ruling VMRO DPMNE party has agreed to the new election date, Zaev, faced with the expected win of Gruevski’s is threatening to boycott again.
The socialist opposition has likely ties to Russia, which opposes Macedonia’s western integration and may have played a role in doctoring the tapes. Behind in national polling, Zaev effectively is trying to put his country in Vladimir Putin’s back pocket and poised to create political instability in its neighbors.
To its credit, the EU recognizes the need for a stable, democratic Macedonia within its midst and it repeatedly expressed support for the upcoming elections. Hopefully, the U.S. will do the same.
With the Parliament poised for dissolution before scheduled June elections mediated by the EU, time is of the essence for the U.S. to exhibit real leadership. In January, while visiting the United States, former Prime Minister Gruevski was given assurances by Vice President Biden that the U.S. remains Macedonia’s firm partner and stands behind Macedonia’s integration into NATO and the EU. Hopefully, Biden’s words were more than just talk. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Hoyt Yee visited Macedonia recently to check on implementation of the EU’s brokered accord – he must keep all parties on track for elections.
Why is all of this important to America? America’s interests should not only be the inclusion of Macedonia into the US-led alliance or security of the 40 American companies operating there, but more importantly the role Macedonia plays in securing against ISIS and radical infiltration into Europe and the U.S. as well.
ISIS is smart. ISIS, who has both announced and demonstrated that they can infiltrate the refugees to get operatives into Europe, will take advantage of any weak point. At this moment that weak point may well be along a Macedonian border.
The bottom line for America is that our best defense has to start far from our own borders. Macedonia is the right place to exert immediate influence. We need to be fully engaged, both in their attempts to cement a strong political future but also in their efforts to work on the refugee crisis. There are few issues more important to American interests than holding the line against ISIS penetration of the West.